ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation Utilities - Utilities - Regulated Gas Investor Relations →
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) closed at $170.11 as of 2026-06-19, trading 29.9% above its 200-week moving average of $130.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2168 weeks of data, ATO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ATO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $28.4 billion, ATO is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
ATO is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 236.00%. Share count has increased 14.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ATO would have grown to $3878, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ATO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ATO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ATO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying ATO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.1% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to -0.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.4% vs +12.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ATO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ATO currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ATO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ATO has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 2 | 3.4% | +36.0% | +9009.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1988 | 5 | 7.1% | +34.4% | +9388.7% |
| Jun 1989 | Jul 1989 | 2 | 2.3% | +18.6% | +7491.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 2000 | 57 | 36.1% | -8.2% | +1799.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 3.8% | +14.2% | +1798.1% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 4 | 9.7% | -1.0% | +1833.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 5.1% | +4.7% | +1781.5% |
| Oct 2001 | Dec 2001 | 11 | 8.7% | +3.5% | +1768.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 2.6% | +12.8% | +1813.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 3.1% | +29.3% | +1852.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 2.6% | -3.5% | +1080.5% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.7% | +6.7% | +1053.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 18.3% | +44.1% | +1273.7% |
| May 2009 | Jun 2009 | 4 | 5.3% | +22.4% | +1071.4% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +20.9% | +1031.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.3% | +11.9% | +130.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 10 | 7.9% | +21.1% | +118.6% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2021 | 8 | 5.8% | +30.1% | +105.5% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 2 | 1.0% | +30.9% | +104.9% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | +17.1% | +90.1% |
| Average | 8 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is currently 29.9% above its 200-week moving average of $130.97. It would need to fall to $130.97 to cross below the line.
What is ATO's 200-week moving average price?
Atmos Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $130.97 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ATO drops below its 200-week moving average?
ATO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is ATO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ATO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ATO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ATO would have grown to $3878, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ATO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ATO pay a dividend?
Yes. Atmos Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 236.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19