ATKR

Atkore Inc. Industrials - Electrical Equipment Investor Relations →

YES
20.1% BELOW
↑ Moving away Was -22.0% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $101.63
14-Week RSI 83
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.8x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.01

Atkore Inc. (ATKR) closed at $81.17 as of 2026-06-19, trading 20.1% below its 200-week moving average of $101.63. This places ATKR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -22.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, ATKR is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 475 weeks of data, ATKR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ATKR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +93.8%.

With a market cap of $2.7 billion, ATKR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -9.0%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.1% over the past three years.

Over the past 9.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ATKR would have grown to $385, compared to $358 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming ATKR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: ATKR vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After ATKR Crosses Below the Line?

Across 10 historical episodes, buying ATKR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +83.4% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +153.8% vs +29.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ATKR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ATKR would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.28σ
Current FCF Yield 5.32%
Baseline Yield 7.01%
Historical σ 0.90pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where ATKR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$51.94Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$58.26Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$66.33Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$77.00Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$91.76Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from ATKR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation N/A Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.95σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +3.0pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -5.2pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-14.9pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

ATKR has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +93.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jul 2017Nov 20171924.6%+7.5%+300.6%
Dec 2017Dec 201710.2%-2.4%+305.0%
Feb 2018May 20181214.0%+16.0%+305.6%
Jun 2018Jul 201810.6%+24.6%+307.0%
Oct 2018Jan 20191114.9%+75.9%+335.9%
Mar 2019Mar 201912.9%-8.9%+307.7%
Mar 2020May 2020925.8%+282.4%+347.7%
Jun 2020Jun 202010.1%+193.9%+245.3%
Sep 2020Nov 2020817.3%+254.8%+243.3%
Aug 2024Ongoing98+51.8%Ongoing-11.3%
Average16+93.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ATKR below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Atkore Inc. (ATKR) is trading 20.1% below its 200-week moving average of $101.63. The current price is $81.17.

What is ATKR's 200-week moving average price?

Atkore Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $101.63 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when ATKR drops below its 200-week moving average?

ATKR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +93.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.

Is ATKR a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about ATKR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 83 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 9.3%. Return on equity is -9.0%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does ATKR compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 9.2 years, $100 invested in ATKR would have grown to $385, compared to $358 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. ATKR has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does ATKR pay a dividend?

Yes. Atkore Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 167.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19