ATI
ATI Inc. Materials - Specialty Metals Investor Relations →
ATI Inc. (ATI) closed at $201.34 as of 2026-06-19, trading 202.7% above its 200-week moving average of $66.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 202.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, ATI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1337 weeks of data, ATI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -8.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $27.5 billion, ATI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 22.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.5x book value.
Share count has increased 6.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 25.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ATI would have grown to $1437, compared to $894 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 8.9% for the index — confirming ATI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 52.5% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ATI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ATI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ATI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.2% after 12 months (median -29.0%), compared to +2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 29% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.3% vs +19.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ATI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ATI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ATI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $145.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $153.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $162.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $173.42 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $185.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ATI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ATI has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +-8.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2000 | May 2001 | 27 | 32.8% | -16.6% | +1402.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 6 | 8.0% | -6.2% | +1470.9% |
| Aug 2001 | May 2002 | 37 | 28.8% | -50.3% | +1409.2% |
| Jun 2002 | Dec 2003 | 80 | 81.3% | -55.0% | +1507.6% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 5 | 22.5% | +63.2% | +2020.5% |
| Mar 2004 | Mar 2004 | 3 | 5.2% | +107.0% | +2075.9% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 6 | 17.1% | +86.2% | +2062.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2010 | 129 | 73.1% | -41.3% | +296.0% |
| Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.2% | +312.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 21.6% | -36.7% | +366.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 5.6% | -36.8% | +419.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 1.8% | -35.2% | +403.8% |
| Feb 2012 | Apr 2014 | 111 | 38.7% | -29.4% | +412.2% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 3.8% | -42.4% | +462.5% |
| Sep 2014 | May 2015 | 31 | 25.4% | -54.2% | +508.9% |
| May 2015 | Sep 2017 | 122 | 71.9% | -61.6% | +540.2% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 5 | 6.0% | +23.2% | +814.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 13 | 15.1% | -57.7% | +879.3% |
| Dec 2019 | Mar 2021 | 64 | 71.2% | -22.0% | +879.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Jan 2022 | 26 | 27.9% | +13.5% | +900.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 7.0% | +96.6% | +993.6% |
| Average | 32 | — | +-8.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATI below its 200-week moving average?
No. ATI Inc. (ATI) is currently 202.7% above its 200-week moving average of $66.52. It would need to fall to $66.52 to cross below the line.
What is ATI's 200-week moving average price?
ATI Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $66.52 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ATI drops below its 200-week moving average?
ATI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -8.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is ATI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ATI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 22.7%. Price-to-book is 15.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ATI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.7 years, $100 invested in ATI would have grown to $1437, compared to $894 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. ATI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19