ATEC
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. Healthcare - Medical Devices Investor Relations →
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC) closed at $8.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 29.2% below its 200-week moving average of $12.44. This places ATEC in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -33.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, ATEC is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.71 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 996 weeks of data, ATEC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 49 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ATEC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +70.8%.
With a market cap of $1355 million, ATEC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. The stock trades at -251.7x book value.
Share count has increased 39.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 19.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ATEC would have grown to $20, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. ATEC has returned -8.0% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $996,192. Notably, these purchases occurred while ATEC is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ATEC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ATEC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying ATEC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +55.2% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.1% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ATEC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ATEC currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ATEC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ATEC has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +70.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2007 | Nov 2007 | 27 | 24.4% | +46.6% | -78.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 13.8% | -27.9% | -83.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 5.7% | +14.1% | -82.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 3.9% | +3.9% | -83.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 42 | 72.3% | +6.9% | -83.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Apr 2019 | 456 | 86.6% | +8.8% | -69.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 37.6% | +678.3% | +274.9% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 12 | 19.4% | +95.5% | +13.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 5 | 12.3% | +87.7% | +12.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 4 | 14.0% | -45.0% | -7.7% |
| May 2024 | Apr 2025 | 51 | 58.2% | +6.0% | -23.5% |
| Jun 2025 | Jul 2025 | 7 | 8.1% | -25.1% | -20.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 39.5% | Ongoing | -28.0% |
| Average | 49 | — | +70.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATEC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC) is trading 29.2% below its 200-week moving average of $12.44. The current price is $8.81.
What is ATEC's 200-week moving average price?
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.44 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ATEC drops below its 200-week moving average?
ATEC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +70.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 49 weeks on average.
Is ATEC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ATEC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Price-to-book is -251.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ATEC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.2 years, $100 invested in ATEC would have grown to $20, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. That's -8.0% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. ATEC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19