ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc. Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Investor Relations →
Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) closed at $56.12 as of 2026-06-19, trading 40.0% above its 200-week moving average of $40.09. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 28.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2039 weeks of data, ASTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ASTE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.6%.
With a market cap of $1290 million, ASTE is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 3.9%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ASTE would have grown to $1392, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. ASTE has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ASTE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ASTE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying ASTE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +10.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.2% vs +30.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ASTE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ASTE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ASTE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $48.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $52.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $58.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $65.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $74.57 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ASTE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ASTE has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +12.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 4.6% | +26.3% | +1780.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 3.2% | +4.3% | +1747.8% |
| Dec 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 3.3% | +13.8% | +1747.8% |
| Oct 1988 | Dec 1988 | 6 | 4.4% | -35.0% | +1642.7% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1992 | 158 | 82.1% | -55.6% | +1628.6% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 2 | 0.9% | +185.3% | +3052.2% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 2 | 2.1% | -16.0% | +1223.1% |
| Nov 1995 | May 1997 | 80 | 31.6% | -16.1% | +1131.9% |
| Sep 2000 | Jan 2004 | 173 | 68.2% | -0.8% | +284.1% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 2 | 11.8% | +26.9% | +394.3% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 1 | 3.1% | +37.4% | +404.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 10.1% | +1.7% | +139.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 6 | 6.6% | -4.2% | +112.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2010 | 85 | 39.5% | -20.2% | +112.2% |
| May 2010 | Feb 2011 | 41 | 19.9% | +24.9% | +126.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 5.7% | +6.0% | +130.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 4.2% | +6.6% | +120.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 5.2% | +2.0% | +131.5% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 8 | 11.1% | +23.7% | +132.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 4 | 6.1% | +28.6% | +124.0% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 2 | 3.4% | +23.8% | +123.4% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 6 | 13.6% | +27.3% | +139.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Nov 2015 | 6 | 9.1% | +70.3% | +82.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 1.3% | +91.4% | +78.1% |
| Jul 2018 | Sep 2018 | 7 | 8.3% | -30.7% | +27.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Aug 2020 | 95 | 45.3% | -36.4% | +27.3% |
| Feb 2022 | Jul 2023 | 74 | 33.7% | +5.2% | +25.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Jun 2025 | 94 | 39.0% | -36.9% | +19.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 4 | 6.3% | N/A | +41.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +12.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) is currently 40.0% above its 200-week moving average of $40.09. It would need to fall to $40.09 to cross below the line.
What is ASTE's 200-week moving average price?
Astec Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $40.09 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ASTE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ASTE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is ASTE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ASTE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 0.2%. Return on equity is 3.9%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ASTE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ASTE would have grown to $1392, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ASTE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19