ASPN
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) closed at $6.32 as of 2026-06-19, trading 42.2% below its 200-week moving average of $10.93. This places ASPN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -46.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, ASPN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.21 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 579 weeks of data, ASPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 64 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -39.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $524 million, ASPN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -42.4%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 18.2% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 11.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ASPN would have grown to $92, compared to $426 for the S&P 500. ASPN has returned -0.8% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ASPN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ASPN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ASPN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -39.0% after 12 months (median -36.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was +7.8% vs +34.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ASPN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ASPN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ASPN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.92 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $3.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $4.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $6.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ASPN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ASPN has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-39.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2015 | Sep 2015 | 16 | 24.2% | -38.9% | -7.2% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 8.4% | -20.5% | -15.7% |
| Nov 2015 | May 2019 | 184 | 61.4% | -33.7% | +3.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Apr 2024 | 98 | 68.8% | -46.1% | -57.3% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 5.1% | -59.7% | -66.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 87+ | 77.4% | Ongoing | -66.7% |
| Average | 64 | — | +-39.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASPN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) is trading 42.2% below its 200-week moving average of $10.93. The current price is $6.32.
What is ASPN's 200-week moving average price?
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.93 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ASPN drops below its 200-week moving average?
ASPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -39.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 64 weeks on average.
Is ASPN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ASPN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.7%. Return on equity is -42.4%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ASPN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.2 years, $100 invested in ASPN would have grown to $92, compared to $426 for the S&P 500. That's -0.8% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. ASPN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19