ASPN
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) closed at $3.43 as of 2026-02-02, trading 71.5% below its 200-week moving average of $12.04. This places ASPN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -72.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 19, ASPN is in oversold territory.
Over the past 560 weeks of data, ASPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 61 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -39.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $283 million, ASPN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -75.1%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 147.0% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 10.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ASPN would have grown to $50, compared to $392 for the S&P 500. ASPN has returned -6.2% annualized vs 13.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: ASPN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ASPN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ASPN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -39.0% after 12 months (median -36.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was +7.8% vs +34.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ASPN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ASPN has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-39.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2015 | Sep 2015 | 16 | 24.2% | -38.9% | -49.6% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 8.4% | -20.5% | -54.3% |
| Nov 2015 | May 2019 | 184 | 61.4% | -33.7% | -43.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Apr 2024 | 98 | 68.8% | -46.1% | -76.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 5.1% | -59.7% | -81.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 68+ | 77.4% | Ongoing | -81.9% |
| Average | 61 | — | +-39.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02