ASML
ASML Holding N.V. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment Investor Relations →
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) closed at $1629.00 as of 2026-07-31, trading 88.0% above its 200-week moving average of $866.73. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 103.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1589 weeks of data, ASML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ASML at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.7%.
With a market cap of $625.7 billion, ASML is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 53.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1401.0x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.3% reduction over three years. ASML passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 30.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ASML would have grown to $43849, compared to $1979 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.1% vs 10.3% for the index — confirming ASML as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ASML vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ASML Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ASML when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +54.1% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +105.4% vs +27.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ASML crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ASML would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ASML's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1399.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1507.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1634.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1784.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1964.28 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ASML's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ASML has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +51.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 1.8% | +97.2% | +52297.9% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.3% | +84.8% | +51486.7% |
| Jun 1996 | Nov 1996 | 21 | 16.5% | +187.8% | +50700.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 7 | 34.9% | +263.8% | +27857.2% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 3.2% | +18.3% | +8471.3% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +12.9% | +8165.1% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 36 | 54.3% | -36.3% | +7905.9% |
| Apr 2002 | Dec 2003 | 90 | 74.6% | -68.9% | +7631.3% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 1 | 1.6% | -17.1% | +8911.8% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 5 | 11.1% | +2.5% | +9405.4% |
| Apr 2004 | Dec 2004 | 36 | 24.2% | -15.7% | +9778.7% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 5.8% | +50.1% | +11772.0% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 2.9% | +37.9% | +11619.6% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.6% | +17.7% | +7815.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 45 | 40.3% | +29.1% | +8018.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 7.3% | +40.1% | +2154.5% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 2.6% | +54.0% | +2106.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 14.5% | +36.0% | +286.9% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 5 | 4.3% | +58.5% | +144.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 6 | 13.4% | +94.8% | +144.4% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +137.7% | +137.7% |
| Average | 13 | — | +51.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASML below its 200-week moving average?
No. ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is currently 88.0% above its 200-week moving average of $866.73. It would need to fall to $866.73 to cross below the line.
What is ASML's 200-week moving average price?
ASML Holding N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $866.73 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ASML drops below its 200-week moving average?
ASML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is ASML a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ASML as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 53.9%. Price-to-book is 1401.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ASML compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.5 years, $100 invested in ASML would have grown to $43849, compared to $1979 for the S&P 500. That's 22.1% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. ASML has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ASML pay a dividend?
Yes. ASML Holding N.V. currently pays a dividend yield of 56.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31