ASML
ASML Holding N.V. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment Investor Relations →
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) closed at $1413.01 as of 2026-02-02, trading 91.4% above its 200-week moving average of $738.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 93.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, ASML is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1564 weeks of data, ASML has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ASML at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +44.9%.
With a market cap of $548.5 billion, ASML is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 50.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 23.6x book value.
ASML passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 30.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ASML would have grown to $37853, compared to $1820 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.8% vs 10.1% for the index — confirming ASML as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: ASML vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ASML Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ASML when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.3% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +105.4% vs +27.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ASML crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ASML has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +44.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 1.8% | +97.2% | +45133.1% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.3% | +84.8% | +44432.9% |
| Jun 1996 | Nov 1996 | 21 | 16.5% | +187.8% | +43754.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 7 | 34.9% | +263.8% | +24034.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 3.2% | +18.3% | +7299.2% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +12.9% | +7035.0% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 36 | 54.3% | -36.3% | +6811.2% |
| Apr 2002 | Dec 2003 | 90 | 74.6% | -68.9% | +6574.2% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 1 | 1.6% | -17.1% | +7679.6% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 5 | 11.1% | +2.5% | +8105.6% |
| Apr 2004 | Dec 2004 | 36 | 24.2% | -15.7% | +8427.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 5.8% | +50.1% | +10148.6% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 2.9% | +37.9% | +10017.1% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.5% | +17.7% | +6733.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 45 | 40.3% | +29.1% | +6908.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 7.2% | +40.1% | +1846.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 2.6% | +54.0% | +1804.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 14.5% | +36.0% | +234.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 5 | 4.3% | +58.6% | +111.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 6 | 13.4% | N/A | +111.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | +105.7% |
| Average | 13 | — | +44.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02