ARVN
Arvinas Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) closed at $13.48 as of 2026-02-02, trading 49.9% below its 200-week moving average of $26.91. This places ARVN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -50.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, ARVN is in overbought territory.
Over the past 336 weeks of data, ARVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARVN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $990 million, ARVN is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -10.2%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Share count has increased 30.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARVN would have grown to $70, compared to $256 for the S&P 500. ARVN has returned -5.3% annualized vs 15.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ARVN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARVN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ARVN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.3% after 12 months (median -35.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.3% vs +39.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARVN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ARVN has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 3 | 21.8% | +25.6% | -29.8% |
| Aug 2020 | Dec 2020 | 17 | 25.3% | +241.7% | -49.5% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 9 | 17.2% | -44.6% | -70.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 13.8% | -41.1% | -70.5% |
| Nov 2022 | Feb 2024 | 63 | 71.6% | -45.8% | -66.6% |
| Feb 2024 | Ongoing | 103+ | 84.5% | Ongoing | -71.3% |
| Average | 34 | — | +27.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02