ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) closed at $16.76 as of 2026-06-19, trading 15.4% above its 200-week moving average of $14.53. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 919 weeks of data, ARR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 80 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, ARR is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 243.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 17.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARR would have grown to $54, compared to $1146 for the S&P 500. ARR has returned -3.4% annualized vs 14.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ARR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.4% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +22.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.1% vs +42.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $15.42 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $16.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $16.72 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $17.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $18.26 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARR has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 2.7% | -5.6% | -44.4% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2010 | 59 | 31.1% | -1.4% | -42.2% |
| May 2013 | Sep 2016 | 173 | 31.1% | -1.0% | -47.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 2.4% | +40.5% | -39.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 5.3% | -55.6% | -46.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Dec 2019 | 22 | 10.2% | -42.5% | -47.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2025 | 295 | 64.0% | -1.1% | -34.9% |
| Average | 80 | — | +-9.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARR below its 200-week moving average?
No. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is currently 15.4% above its 200-week moving average of $14.53. It would need to fall to $14.53 to cross below the line.
What is ARR's 200-week moving average price?
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.53 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARR drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -9.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 80 weeks on average.
Is ARR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.7 years, $100 invested in ARR would have grown to $54, compared to $1146 for the S&P 500. That's -3.4% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. ARR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARR pay a dividend?
Yes. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1690.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19