ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) closed at $17.69 as of 2026-02-02, trading 12.7% above its 200-week moving average of $15.70. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 10.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 900 weeks of data, ARR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 80 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1991 million, ARR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 3.7%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 231.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 17.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARR would have grown to $53, compared to $1054 for the S&P 500. ARR has returned -3.6% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 181.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: ARR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ARR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.4% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +22.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.1% vs +42.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ARR has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 2.7% | -5.6% | -45.2% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2010 | 59 | 31.1% | -1.4% | -43.0% |
| May 2013 | Sep 2016 | 173 | 31.1% | -1.0% | -48.7% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 2.4% | +40.5% | -40.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 5.3% | -55.6% | -47.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Dec 2019 | 22 | 10.2% | -42.5% | -48.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2025 | 295 | 64.0% | -1.1% | -35.9% |
| Average | 80 | — | +-9.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02