ARLP
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Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) closed at $25.87 as of 2026-09-18, trading 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $19.61. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1365 weeks of data, ARLP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 51 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -21.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, ARLP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
ARLP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 26.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARLP would have grown to $5469, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.5% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming ARLP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARLP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARLP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ARLP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -23.0% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +33.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARLP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARLP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARLP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.44 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $22.94 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $27.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $0.65 | $0.66 | +1.7% |
| 2026-04-27 | $0.29 | $0.38 | +32.1% |
| 2026-02-02 | $0.57 | $0.78 | +36.3% |
| 2025-10-27 | $0.68 | $0.71 | +4.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARLP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARLP has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 31 | 43.6% | +19.5% | +635.9% |
| Jun 2009 | Jun 2009 | 1 | 1.8% | +58.7% | +600.5% |
| Mar 2015 | May 2018 | 166 | 63.6% | -58.3% | +146.3% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 4.3% | +3.6% | +206.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.4% | -74.4% | +224.9% |
| Sep 2019 | Sep 2021 | 104 | 79.8% | -78.9% | +229.5% |
| Average | 51 | — | +-21.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is currently 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $19.61. It would need to fall to $19.61 to cross below the line.
What is ARLP's 200-week moving average price?
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s 200-week moving average is $19.61 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARLP drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARLP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -21.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 51 weeks on average.
Is ARLP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARLP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 7.8%. Return on equity is 15.2%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARLP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.2 years, $100 invested in ARLP would have grown to $5469, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That's 16.5% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. ARLP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARLP pay a dividend?
Yes. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. currently pays a dividend yield of 927.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18