ARKO
Arko Corp. Consumer Staples - Convenience Stores Investor Relations →
Arko Corp. (ARKO) closed at $7.99 as of 2026-07-31, trading 25.8% above its 200-week moving average of $6.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 24.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.20 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 318 weeks of data, ARKO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -12.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $896 million, ARKO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 6.5%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 6.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARKO would have grown to $84, compared to $263 for the S&P 500. ARKO has returned -2.8% annualized vs 17.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARKO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARKO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ARKO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.1% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +3.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 14% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -17.4% vs +22.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARKO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARKO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARKO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $6.54 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $11.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $18.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARKO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARKO has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +-12.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2020 | Apr 2021 | 38 | 19.6% | -18.6% | -15.1% |
| Jun 2021 | Aug 2021 | 11 | 23.8% | -15.5% | -9.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 2.0% | -1.6% | -11.2% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 3 | 3.6% | -3.2% | -11.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Aug 2022 | 38 | 20.9% | -6.8% | -11.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 3.3% | -21.8% | -9.8% |
| Nov 2022 | Apr 2026 | 179 | 50.2% | -17.2% | -7.4% |
| Average | 39 | — | +-12.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARKO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Arko Corp. (ARKO) is currently 25.8% above its 200-week moving average of $6.35. It would need to fall to $6.35 to cross below the line.
What is ARKO's 200-week moving average price?
Arko Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $6.35 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARKO drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARKO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -12.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is ARKO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARKO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 6.5%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARKO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.2 years, $100 invested in ARKO would have grown to $84, compared to $263 for the S&P 500. That's -2.8% annualized vs 17.0% for the index. ARKO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARKO pay a dividend?
Yes. Arko Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 149.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31