ARES
Ares Management Corporation Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) closed at $128.09 as of 2026-07-31, trading 4.1% above its 200-week moving average of $123.03. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 591 weeks of data, ARES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.9%.
With a market cap of $42.3 billion, ARES is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 14.2%. The stock trades at 10.1x book value.
Share count has increased 25.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARES would have grown to $1150, compared to $432 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 24.0% vs 13.8% for the index — confirming ARES as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,325,826.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying ARES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.0% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +16.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.0% vs +33.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARES would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARES's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $55.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $68.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $89.77 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $130.00 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $235.55 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARES's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARES has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +12.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 4 | 2.3% | +5.1% | +1060.5% |
| Sep 2015 | Jul 2016 | 43 | 35.2% | +5.4% | +1057.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 1.4% | +28.2% | +1133.7% |
| Feb 2026 | May 2026 | 10 | 15.7% | N/A | +17.1% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 3 | 10.2% | N/A | +17.4% |
| Average | 12 | — | +12.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARES below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is currently 4.1% above its 200-week moving average of $123.03. It would need to fall to $123.03 to cross below the line.
What is ARES's 200-week moving average price?
Ares Management Corporation's 200-week moving average is $123.03 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARES drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is ARES a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARES as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 14.2%. Price-to-book is 10.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARES compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.3 years, $100 invested in ARES would have grown to $1150, compared to $432 for the S&P 500. That's 24.0% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. ARES has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARES pay a dividend?
Yes. Ares Management Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 433.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31