ARCT
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) closed at $7.53 as of 2026-06-19, trading 61.2% below its 200-week moving average of $19.41. This places ARCT in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -64.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 634 weeks of data, ARCT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 63 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARCT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +114.7%.
With a market cap of $214 million, ARCT is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -37.0%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 7.0% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 12.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARCT would have grown to $6, compared to $487 for the S&P 500. ARCT has returned -20.3% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARCT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARCT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ARCT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +65.8% after 12 months (median -34.0%), compared to +13.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -6.5% vs +31.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARCT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ARCT currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARCT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARCT has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +114.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2014 | May 2014 | 1 | 1.5% | -59.9% | -93.2% |
| Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 2 | 0.5% | -54.4% | -93.5% |
| Sep 2014 | Jan 2020 | 276 | 89.5% | -59.2% | -92.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 10.9% | +603.5% | -26.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 15.9% | +431.5% | -19.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Jul 2023 | 77 | 52.7% | -23.5% | -69.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Jan 2024 | 25 | 44.3% | -34.9% | -72.9% |
| Mar 2024 | Ongoing | 118+ | 70.7% | Ongoing | -77.8% |
| Average | 63 | — | +114.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) is trading 61.2% below its 200-week moving average of $19.41. The current price is $7.53.
What is ARCT's 200-week moving average price?
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.41 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARCT drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARCT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +114.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 63 weeks on average.
Is ARCT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARCT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is -37.0%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARCT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.2 years, $100 invested in ARCT would have grown to $6, compared to $487 for the S&P 500. That's -20.3% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. ARCT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19