ARCB
ArcBest Corporation Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) closed at $128.73 as of 2026-09-18, trading 28.9% above its 200-week moving average of $99.84. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, ARCB is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1744 weeks of data, ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARCB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.5%.
With a market cap of $2.9 billion, ARCB is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 1.3%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARCB would have grown to $1876, compared to $3145 for the S&P 500. ARCB has returned 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARCB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARCB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying ARCB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARCB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARCB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARCB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $121.82 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $139.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $164.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $198.76 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $251.78 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $2.26 | $2.38 | +5.2% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.29 | $0.32 | +11.2% |
| 2026-01-30 | $0.42 | $0.36 | -13.8% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.37 | $1.46 | +6.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARCB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +16.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1993 | Oct 1993 | 26 | 31.8% | +13.7% | +1640.2% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 4.3% | -14.3% | +1399.1% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 6 | 14.2% | -17.4% | +1399.1% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 4 | 5.0% | +5.4% | +1381.1% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 7 | 13.7% | -22.3% | +1411.1% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | -47.8% | +1364.8% |
| Feb 1995 | Feb 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | -55.0% | +1363.6% |
| Mar 1995 | Jul 1995 | 19 | 33.7% | -24.1% | +1567.9% |
| Aug 1995 | Jul 1997 | 103 | 57.0% | -47.7% | +1423.1% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 2 | 3.4% | -34.7% | +1882.9% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 3.7% | +10.4% | +1939.6% |
| Jul 1998 | Jan 1999 | 25 | 42.3% | +51.5% | +2184.3% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 0.4% | +61.3% | +2086.7% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.3% | +53.4% | +2123.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2008 | 38 | 49.8% | +3.2% | +334.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.6% | +327.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 7.3% | -21.4% | +328.4% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2010 | 119 | 50.0% | -10.4% | +327.1% |
| Dec 2010 | Jun 2013 | 129 | 69.6% | -31.4% | +457.8% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.7% | +128.4% | +653.3% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 1.1% | -23.7% | +453.3% |
| Oct 2015 | Nov 2016 | 54 | 39.5% | -23.6% | +444.4% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +30.9% | +400.0% |
| Mar 2017 | Aug 2017 | 25 | 39.2% | +30.8% | +403.2% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +74.8% | +381.8% |
| May 2019 | Aug 2019 | 16 | 14.2% | -24.1% | +371.8% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 2 | 3.9% | +13.8% | +376.8% |
| Nov 2019 | Jul 2020 | 35 | 44.4% | +28.7% | +359.3% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +95.9% | +337.8% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 2.0% | +142.3% | +332.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +196.1% | +334.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | -5.3% | +39.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2026 | 52 | 38.0% | +23.6% | +42.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 8.1% | N/A | +52.0% |
| Average | 20 | — | +16.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCB below its 200-week moving average?
No. ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) is currently 28.9% above its 200-week moving average of $99.84. It would need to fall to $99.84 to cross below the line.
What is ARCB's 200-week moving average price?
ArcBest Corporation's 200-week moving average is $99.84 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARCB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is ARCB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARCB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 5.2%. Return on equity is 1.3%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARCB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ARCB would have grown to $1876, compared to $3145 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ARCB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARCB pay a dividend?
Yes. ArcBest Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 37.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18