ARCB
ArcBest Corporation Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) closed at $144.35 as of 2026-07-31, trading 47.6% above its 200-week moving average of $97.77. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1737 weeks of data, ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARCB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.5%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, ARCB is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.6%. Return on equity stands at 1.3%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARCB would have grown to $2102, compared to $3077 for the S&P 500. ARCB has returned 9.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARCB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARCB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying ARCB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARCB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARCB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARCB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $104.62 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $114.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $126.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $141.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $160.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARCB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +16.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1993 | Oct 1993 | 26 | 31.8% | +13.7% | +1849.7% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 4.3% | -14.3% | +1579.5% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 6 | 14.2% | -17.4% | +1579.5% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 4 | 5.0% | +5.4% | +1559.3% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 7 | 13.7% | -22.3% | +1593.0% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | -47.8% | +1541.1% |
| Feb 1995 | Feb 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | -55.0% | +1539.8% |
| Mar 1995 | Jul 1995 | 19 | 33.7% | -24.1% | +1768.6% |
| Aug 1995 | Jul 1997 | 103 | 57.0% | -47.7% | +1606.4% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 2 | 3.4% | -34.7% | +2121.6% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 3.7% | +10.4% | +2185.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Jan 1999 | 25 | 42.3% | +51.5% | +2459.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 0.4% | +61.2% | +2349.9% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.3% | +53.4% | +2391.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2008 | 38 | 49.8% | +3.2% | +386.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.6% | +378.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 7.3% | -21.4% | +380.0% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2010 | 119 | 50.0% | -10.4% | +378.5% |
| Dec 2010 | Jun 2013 | 129 | 69.6% | -31.4% | +524.9% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.7% | +128.4% | +744.0% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 1.1% | -23.7% | +519.9% |
| Oct 2015 | Nov 2016 | 54 | 39.5% | -23.6% | +509.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +30.9% | +460.1% |
| Mar 2017 | Aug 2017 | 25 | 39.2% | +30.8% | +463.8% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +74.8% | +439.8% |
| May 2019 | Aug 2019 | 16 | 14.2% | -24.1% | +428.6% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 2 | 3.9% | +13.8% | +434.2% |
| Nov 2019 | Jul 2020 | 35 | 44.4% | +28.7% | +414.6% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +95.9% | +390.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 2.0% | +142.3% | +384.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +196.1% | +387.1% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | -5.3% | +56.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2026 | 52 | 38.0% | +23.6% | +59.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 8.1% | N/A | +70.3% |
| Average | 20 | — | +16.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCB below its 200-week moving average?
No. ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) is currently 47.6% above its 200-week moving average of $97.77. It would need to fall to $97.77 to cross below the line.
What is ARCB's 200-week moving average price?
ArcBest Corporation's 200-week moving average is $97.77 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARCB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is ARCB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARCB as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 4.6%. Return on equity is 1.3%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARCB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in ARCB would have grown to $2102, compared to $3077 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ARCB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARCB pay a dividend?
Yes. ArcBest Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 33.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31