ARCB
ArcBest Corporation Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) closed at $144.53 as of 2026-06-19, trading 51.3% above its 200-week moving average of $95.55. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 81.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, ARCB is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1731 weeks of data, ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ARCB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.9%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, ARCB is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 4.3%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ARCB would have grown to $2104, compared to $3076 for the S&P 500. ARCB has returned 9.6% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ARCB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ARCB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying ARCB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ARCB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ARCB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ARCB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $105.68 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $113.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $123.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $134.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $148.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ARCB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +16.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1993 | Oct 1993 | 26 | 31.8% | +13.7% | +1852.1% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 4.3% | -14.3% | +1581.6% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 6 | 14.2% | -17.4% | +1581.6% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 4 | 5.0% | +5.4% | +1561.4% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 7 | 13.7% | -22.3% | +1595.1% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | -47.8% | +1543.2% |
| Feb 1995 | Feb 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | -54.9% | +1543.2% |
| Mar 1995 | Jul 1995 | 19 | 33.7% | -24.1% | +1770.9% |
| Aug 1995 | Jul 1997 | 103 | 57.0% | -47.7% | +1608.6% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 2 | 3.4% | -34.7% | +2124.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 3.7% | +10.4% | +2187.9% |
| Jul 1998 | Jan 1999 | 25 | 42.3% | +51.5% | +2462.4% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 8.4% | +75.5% | +2569.2% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.3% | +53.4% | +2394.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2008 | 38 | 49.8% | +3.2% | +388.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.6% | +379.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 7.3% | -21.4% | +380.6% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2010 | 119 | 50.0% | -10.4% | +379.1% |
| Dec 2010 | Jun 2013 | 129 | 69.6% | -31.4% | +525.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.7% | +128.4% | +745.1% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 1.1% | -23.7% | +520.7% |
| Oct 2015 | Nov 2016 | 54 | 39.5% | -23.6% | +510.6% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +30.9% | +460.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Aug 2017 | 25 | 39.4% | +30.8% | +464.5% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +74.8% | +440.5% |
| May 2019 | Aug 2019 | 16 | 14.2% | -24.1% | +429.3% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 2 | 3.8% | +13.8% | +434.8% |
| Nov 2019 | Jul 2020 | 35 | 44.4% | +28.4% | +415.2% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +95.9% | +391.1% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 2.0% | +142.3% | +385.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +196.1% | +387.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | -5.3% | +56.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2026 | 52 | 38.0% | +23.6% | +59.9% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 8.1% | N/A | +70.5% |
| Average | 20 | — | +16.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCB below its 200-week moving average?
No. ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) is currently 51.3% above its 200-week moving average of $95.55. It would need to fall to $95.55 to cross below the line.
What is ARCB's 200-week moving average price?
ArcBest Corporation's 200-week moving average is $95.55 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ARCB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ARCB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is ARCB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ARCB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 4.3%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ARCB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in ARCB would have grown to $2104, compared to $3076 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. ARCB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ARCB pay a dividend?
Yes. ArcBest Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 30.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19