APPF

AppFolio Inc. Technology - Property Software Investor Relations โ†’

YES
5.2% BELOW
โ†“ Approaching Was 0.4% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $189.54
14-Week RSI 14 ๐Ÿ“‰

AppFolio Inc. (APPF) closed at $179.73 as of 2026-02-02, trading 5.2% below its 200-week moving average of $189.54. This places APPF in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 0.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 14, APPF is in oversold territory.

Over the past 506 weeks of data, APPF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought APPF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +54.2%.

With a market cap of $6.5 billion, APPF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 26.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.9x book value.

APPF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in APPF would have grown to $1231, compared to $386 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 29.1% vs 14.7% for the index โ€” confirming APPF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $8,552,456. Notably, these purchases occurred while APPF is trading below its 200-week moving average โ€” insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 284.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.

Growth of $100: APPF vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After APPF Crosses Below the Line?

Across 4 historical episodes, buying APPF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +55.0% after 12 months (median +98.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +149.0% vs +26.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment APPF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Insider Buying Activity

3 conviction buys in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-06-09BLISS TIMOTHY KDirector$4,778,05422,000N/A
2025-06-06CASEY ROBERT DONALD IIIDirector$870,9204,000+16.4%
2025-02-14WOLF ALEXANDERDirector$2,903,48213,500N/A

Historical Touches

APPF has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +54.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
May 2016Jul 201665.6%+112.0%+1131.0%
Jan 2022Jan 202220.5%+5.0%+62.5%
Mar 2022Feb 20234721.4%+4.6%+60.5%
Mar 2023Mar 202335.8%+95.2%+54.1%
Feb 2026Ongoing1+5.2%OngoingN/A
Average12โ€”+54.2%โ€”

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02