APPF
AppFolio Inc. Technology - Property Software Investor Relations โ
AppFolio Inc. (APPF) closed at $179.73 as of 2026-02-02, trading 5.2% below its 200-week moving average of $189.54. This places APPF in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 0.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 14, APPF is in oversold territory.
Over the past 506 weeks of data, APPF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought APPF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +54.2%.
With a market cap of $6.5 billion, APPF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 26.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.9x book value.
APPF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in APPF would have grown to $1231, compared to $386 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 29.1% vs 14.7% for the index โ confirming APPF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $8,552,456. Notably, these purchases occurred while APPF is trading below its 200-week moving average โ insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 284.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: APPF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After APPF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying APPF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +55.0% after 12 months (median +98.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +149.0% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment APPF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
APPF has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +54.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 6 | 5.6% | +112.0% | +1131.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 0.5% | +5.0% | +62.5% |
| Mar 2022 | Feb 2023 | 47 | 21.4% | +4.6% | +60.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 5.8% | +95.2% | +54.1% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 5.2% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 12 | โ | +54.2% | โ |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02