APP
AppLovin Corporation Technology - Mobile Apps Investor Relations →
AppLovin Corporation (APP) closed at $308.06 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.2% above its 200-week moving average of $238.46. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, APP is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 235 weeks of data, APP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time. On average, these episodes lasted 96 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -73.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $103.5 billion, APP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 203.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 32.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 4.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in APP would have grown to $578, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 46.7% vs 13.6% for the index — confirming APP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 112.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: APP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After APP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 1 historical episodes, buying APP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -70.0% after 12 months (median -70.0%), compared to -8.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was +30.0% vs +19.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment APP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices APP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where APP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $274.24 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $350.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $486.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $794.32 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2159.41 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $3.74 | $3.76 | +0.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $3.64 | $3.76 | +3.5% |
| 2026-02-11 | $3.11 | $3.48 | +11.9% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.53 | $2.55 | +0.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from APP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
APP has crossed below its 200-week MA 1 time with an average 1-year return of +-73.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2022 | Jan 2024 | 96 | 82.1% | -73.5% | +476.5% |
| Average | 96 | — | +-73.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APP below its 200-week moving average?
No. AppLovin Corporation (APP) is currently 29.2% above its 200-week moving average of $238.46. It would need to fall to $238.46 to cross below the line.
What is APP's 200-week moving average price?
AppLovin Corporation's 200-week moving average is $238.46 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when APP drops below its 200-week moving average?
APP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -73.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 96 weeks on average.
Is APP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about APP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 203.7%. Price-to-book is 32.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does APP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.6 years, $100 invested in APP would have grown to $578, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. That's 46.7% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. APP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18