APA
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APA Corporation (APA) closed at $33.03 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.81. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2409 weeks of data, APA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought APA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.5%.
With a market cap of $11.7 billion, APA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 26.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 13.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in APA would have grown to $561, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. APA has returned 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: APA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After APA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying APA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.7% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.7% vs +25.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment APA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices APA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where APA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.11 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $35.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $49.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $80.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $215.47 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from APA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
APA has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1980 | May 1980 | 2 | 2.7% | +68.3% | +1110.2% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.0% | -38.4% | +792.6% |
| Jan 1982 | Oct 1985 | 195 | 47.9% | -30.0% | +846.3% |
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 2 | 4.2% | -12.0% | +1193.1% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1987 | 51 | 28.0% | +5.7% | +1261.7% |
| Jan 1987 | Feb 1987 | 1 | 1.8% | -16.8% | +1234.9% |
| Feb 1987 | Mar 1987 | 4 | 6.6% | -15.5% | +1234.9% |
| Apr 1987 | May 1987 | 1 | 0.9% | -17.8% | +1226.9% |
| Jun 1987 | Jun 1987 | 1 | 1.0% | -24.4% | +1243.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1989 | 72 | 31.9% | -25.8% | +1308.2% |
| Feb 1992 | Mar 1992 | 4 | 4.7% | +86.8% | +838.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.6% | +273.6% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 1999 | 42 | 37.0% | +34.6% | +276.7% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 1.2% | +83.5% | +251.3% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 0.7% | +84.4% | +243.2% |
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 33 | 33.8% | +50.7% | -31.2% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 6 | 16.5% | +30.3% | -39.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.6% | +37.2% | -48.1% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 6.8% | +50.2% | -45.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 19.5% | -7.6% | -53.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 11 | 12.5% | -23.0% | -54.3% |
| Apr 2012 | May 2014 | 112 | 28.2% | -22.0% | -53.1% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2016 | 114 | 52.3% | -50.2% | -49.5% |
| Dec 2016 | Oct 2021 | 250 | 87.4% | -32.1% | -33.6% |
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | +82.6% | +56.2% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 8 | 6.2% | -40.0% | +22.5% |
| Jul 2024 | Feb 2026 | 81 | 51.2% | -32.1% | +24.9% |
| Average | 37 | — | +9.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APA below its 200-week moving average?
No. APA Corporation (APA) is currently 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.81. It would need to fall to $28.81 to cross below the line.
What is APA's 200-week moving average price?
APA Corporation's 200-week moving average is $28.81 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when APA drops below its 200-week moving average?
APA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is APA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about APA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 14.5%. Return on equity is 26.2%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does APA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in APA would have grown to $561, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. APA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does APA pay a dividend?
Yes. APA Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 292.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19