AOS
A.O. Smith Corporation Industrials - Water Heaters Investor Relations →
A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) closed at $58.22 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $68.01. This places AOS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -13.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, AOS is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2181 weeks of data, AOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $8.0 billion, AOS is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 28.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
AOS is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 236.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.4% over the past three years. AOS passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AOS would have grown to $5260, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AOS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying AOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.0% vs +31.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AOS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AOS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $54.85 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $58.90 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $63.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $75.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AOS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1984 | Jan 1985 | 19 | 24.2% | +53.6% | +21974.7% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 1 | 2.2% | +106.0% | +18849.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1989 | 73 | 40.6% | +18.6% | +17463.4% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1990 | 53 | 28.5% | -12.2% | +12839.1% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 2 | 1.8% | +22.2% | +13710.2% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 16 | 12.3% | +21.0% | +13945.3% |
| Dec 1990 | Dec 1990 | 2 | 0.2% | +18.5% | +13994.7% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.4% | +29.0% | +4733.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 4 | 10.0% | +30.0% | +4334.3% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 4 | 8.5% | +48.3% | +4077.5% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 1.9% | +53.2% | +3893.3% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 2 | 1.8% | +55.2% | +3871.6% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 5 | 7.0% | +52.3% | +3718.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 17.8% | +60.5% | +2960.5% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 6 | 7.7% | -17.5% | +2721.3% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2002 | 115 | 48.9% | -26.4% | +2396.8% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 0.7% | +16.2% | +1960.8% |
| Sep 2004 | Sep 2004 | 2 | 4.4% | +15.7% | +2002.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 2 | 3.7% | +54.1% | +1717.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 3.5% | -11.4% | +1295.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 11.8% | -2.8% | +1395.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Jun 2008 | 14 | 11.2% | -31.2% | +1306.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 10.7% | -0.1% | +1311.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 38.1% | +11.5% | +1268.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | 12.2% | +15.0% | +49.0% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 22 | 17.0% | -5.9% | +51.4% |
| Nov 2019 | Jul 2020 | 34 | 31.1% | +18.7% | +36.4% |
| Jul 2020 | Sep 2020 | 7 | 4.3% | +48.8% | +35.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.2% | +36.4% | +18.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 11.3% | +31.6% | +20.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 1.8% | +1.1% | -12.2% |
| Jan 2025 | May 2025 | 14 | 9.6% | +11.4% | -10.8% |
| May 2025 | Jul 2025 | 7 | 8.1% | -12.7% | -11.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | -12.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 5 | 4.2% | N/A | -10.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 15+ | 17.6% | Ongoing | -12.4% |
| Average | 14 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AOS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $68.01. The current price is $58.22.
What is AOS's 200-week moving average price?
A.O. Smith Corporation's 200-week moving average is $68.01 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AOS drops below its 200-week moving average?
AOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is AOS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AOS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 6.2%. Return on equity is 28.3%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AOS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AOS would have grown to $5260, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AOS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AOS pay a dividend?
Yes. A.O. Smith Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 236.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19