AOS
A.O. Smith Corporation Industrials - Water Heaters Investor Relations →
A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) closed at $78.98 as of 2026-02-02, trading 16.9% above its 200-week moving average of $67.53. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 8.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 87, AOS is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2162 weeks of data, AOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.5%.
With a market cap of $11.1 billion, AOS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 29.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.0x book value.
AOS is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 177.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years. AOS passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AOS would have grown to $7095, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming AOS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying AOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.0% vs +31.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +22.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1984 | Jan 1985 | 19 | 24.2% | +53.6% | +29676.8% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 1 | 2.2% | +106.0% | +25460.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1989 | 73 | 40.6% | +18.6% | +23591.5% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1990 | 53 | 28.5% | -12.2% | +17353.7% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 2 | 1.8% | +22.2% | +18528.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 16 | 12.3% | +21.0% | +18845.9% |
| Dec 1990 | Dec 1990 | 2 | 0.2% | +18.5% | +18912.5% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.4% | +29.0% | +6420.0% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 4 | 10.0% | +30.0% | +5881.5% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 4 | 8.5% | +48.3% | +5535.1% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 1.9% | +53.2% | +5286.7% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 2 | 1.8% | +55.2% | +5257.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 5 | 7.0% | +52.3% | +5050.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 17.8% | +60.5% | +4028.3% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 6 | 7.7% | -17.5% | +3705.6% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2002 | 115 | 48.9% | -26.4% | +3268.0% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 0.7% | +16.2% | +2679.8% |
| Sep 2004 | Sep 2004 | 2 | 4.4% | +15.7% | +2735.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 2 | 3.7% | +54.1% | +2351.0% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 3.5% | -11.4% | +1782.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 11.8% | -2.8% | +1916.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Jun 2008 | 14 | 11.2% | -31.2% | +1796.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 10.7% | -0.1% | +1804.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 38.1% | +11.5% | +1745.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | 12.2% | +15.0% | +101.0% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 22 | 17.0% | -5.9% | +104.2% |
| Nov 2019 | Jul 2020 | 34 | 31.1% | +18.7% | +84.0% |
| Jul 2020 | Sep 2020 | 7 | 4.3% | +48.8% | +82.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.2% | +36.4% | +59.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 11.3% | +31.6% | +63.0% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 1.8% | +1.1% | +18.4% |
| Jan 2025 | May 2025 | 14 | 9.6% | +11.4% | +20.4% |
| May 2025 | Jul 2025 | 7 | 8.1% | N/A | +19.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +17.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 5 | 4.2% | N/A | +20.9% |
| Average | 14 | — | +22.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02