AON
Aon plc Financial Services - Insurance Brokerage Investor Relations →
Aon plc (AON) closed at $360.55 as of 2026-07-31, trading 9.3% above its 200-week moving average of $329.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 9.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2360 weeks of data, AON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.3%.
With a market cap of $76.5 billion, AON is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 44.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.0x book value.
Share count has increased 4.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AON would have grown to $4262, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying AON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.7% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.0% vs +12.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AON would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AON's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $296.28 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $306.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $318.25 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $330.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $343.73 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AON's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AON has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +18.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 3.2% | +16.4% | +31828.8% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 2.6% | +14.4% | +31620.1% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 0.5% | +61.8% | +30044.0% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 1 | 0.0% | +63.3% | +29857.9% |
| Jun 1982 | Jul 1982 | 5 | 11.4% | +73.2% | +30044.0% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 2 | 10.7% | +57.1% | +30812.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 15 | 13.5% | +27.4% | +11566.5% |
| Apr 1988 | May 1988 | 6 | 4.8% | +41.5% | +10878.0% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 1.5% | +32.7% | +8468.8% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 17.9% | +27.4% | +1678.2% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 19 | 36.1% | +9.2% | +1678.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 5 | 10.8% | +11.9% | +1524.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2001 | 14 | 14.1% | +31.3% | +1623.4% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 5.6% | +5.8% | +1453.6% |
| Mar 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 9.4% | +2.0% | +1385.1% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 2 | 1.9% | -45.4% | +1364.2% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 2 | 3.4% | -44.2% | +1342.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2002 | 9 | 5.9% | -39.2% | +1342.5% |
| May 2002 | Mar 2004 | 95 | 53.6% | -20.7% | +1391.5% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 6.7% | -17.9% | +1705.6% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 7 | 7.9% | -1.3% | +1649.2% |
| Oct 2004 | May 2005 | 31 | 25.3% | +46.9% | +2052.3% |
| May 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 0.0% | +48.6% | +1756.2% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 0.8% | +43.6% | +1782.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 4.3% | +18.0% | +1148.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +6.6% | +1065.3% |
| Apr 2009 | Jul 2009 | 13 | 7.9% | +18.4% | +1082.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.2% | +4.8% | +1008.6% |
| Nov 2009 | Feb 2010 | 11 | 5.0% | +6.7% | +993.9% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 24 | 9.5% | +33.6% | +969.2% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 4.4% | +33.3% | +941.8% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +12.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 12 | 4.4% | N/A | +12.5% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 2.9% | N/A | +13.5% |
| Average | 9 | — | +18.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON below its 200-week moving average?
No. Aon plc (AON) is currently 9.3% above its 200-week moving average of $329.85. It would need to fall to $329.85 to cross below the line.
What is AON's 200-week moving average price?
Aon plc's 200-week moving average is $329.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AON drops below its 200-week moving average?
AON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is AON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AON as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 44.7%. Price-to-book is 8.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in AON would have grown to $4262, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AON pay a dividend?
Yes. Aon plc currently pays a dividend yield of 89.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31