AON
Aon plc Financial Services - Insurance Brokerage Investor Relations →
Aon plc (AON) closed at $295.64 as of 2026-09-18, trading 10.7% below its 200-week moving average of $331.16. This places AON in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -8.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2367 weeks of data, AON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.3%.
With a market cap of $62.7 billion, AON is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 44.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
Share count has increased 4.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AON would have grown to $3503, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $7,826,644. Notably, these purchases occurred while AON is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying AON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.7% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.0% vs +12.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AON would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AON's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $310.78 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $329.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $351.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $375.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $403.32 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $3.80 | $3.81 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-01 | $6.35 | $6.48 | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | $4.75 | $4.85 | +2.2% |
| 2025-10-31 | $2.91 | $3.05 | +4.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AON's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AON has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +18.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 3.2% | +16.4% | +26140.3% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 2.6% | +14.4% | +25968.8% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 0.5% | +61.8% | +24673.5% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 1 | 0.0% | +63.3% | +24520.6% |
| Jun 1982 | Jul 1982 | 5 | 11.4% | +73.2% | +24673.5% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 2 | 10.7% | +57.1% | +25304.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 15 | 13.5% | +27.4% | +9488.0% |
| Apr 1988 | May 1988 | 6 | 4.8% | +41.5% | +8922.2% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 1.5% | +32.7% | +6942.2% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 17.9% | +27.4% | +1361.4% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 19 | 36.1% | +9.2% | +1361.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 5 | 10.8% | +11.9% | +1235.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2001 | 14 | 14.1% | +31.3% | +1316.4% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 5.6% | +5.8% | +1176.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 9.4% | +2.0% | +1120.5% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 2 | 1.9% | -45.4% | +1103.4% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 2 | 3.4% | -44.2% | +1085.2% |
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2002 | 9 | 5.9% | -39.2% | +1085.5% |
| May 2002 | Mar 2004 | 95 | 53.6% | -20.7% | +1125.7% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 6.7% | -17.9% | +1383.9% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 7 | 7.9% | -1.3% | +1337.6% |
| Oct 2004 | May 2005 | 31 | 25.3% | +46.9% | +1668.8% |
| May 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 0.0% | +48.6% | +1425.5% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 0.8% | +43.6% | +1446.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 4.3% | +18.0% | +926.1% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +6.6% | +857.7% |
| Apr 2009 | Jul 2009 | 13 | 7.9% | +18.4% | +871.7% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.2% | +4.8% | +811.1% |
| Nov 2009 | Feb 2010 | 11 | 5.0% | +6.7% | +799.0% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 24 | 9.5% | +33.6% | +778.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 4.4% | +33.3% | +756.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | -7.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 12 | 4.4% | N/A | -7.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 2.9% | N/A | -6.7% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 10.7% | Ongoing | -8.5% |
| Average | 9 | — | +18.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Aon plc (AON) is trading 10.7% below its 200-week moving average of $331.16. The current price is $295.64.
What is AON's 200-week moving average price?
Aon plc's 200-week moving average is $331.16 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AON drops below its 200-week moving average?
AON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is AON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AON as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 44.7%. Price-to-book is 6.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AON would have grown to $3503, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AON pay a dividend?
Yes. Aon plc currently pays a dividend yield of 111.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18