AMT
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American Tower Corporation (AMT) closed at $173.98 as of 2026-09-18, trading 5.4% below its 200-week moving average of $183.98. This places AMT in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1442 weeks of data, AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.1%.
With a market cap of $81.1 billion, AMT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 33.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 21.8x book value.
Over the past 27.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMT would have grown to $905, compared to $997 for the S&P 500. AMT has returned 8.3% annualized vs 8.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,989,779. Notably, these purchases occurred while AMT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying AMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.8% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +12.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.1% vs +3.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $163.61 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $168.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $173.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $178.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $184.02 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $1.87 | +20.6% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.57 | $1.84 | +17.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | $1.47 | $1.75 | +19.1% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.65 | $1.82 | +10.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +36.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 4.4% | +137.7% | +1009.1% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 7.7% | +75.7% | +960.6% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +74.2% | +978.3% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 2 | 12.0% | +106.0% | +1015.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 21.6% | +62.9% | +957.7% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2004 | 170 | 96.8% | -87.0% | +718.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 38.0% | +23.9% | +719.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.8% | +580.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Jul 2024 | 95 | 29.4% | -21.1% | -7.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2025 | 18 | 17.5% | -12.4% | -12.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Jun 2026 | 39 | 13.2% | -7.9% | -8.9% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 14+ | 10.2% | Ongoing | -1.2% |
| Average | 34 | — | +36.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, American Tower Corporation (AMT) is trading 5.4% below its 200-week moving average of $183.98. The current price is $173.98.
What is AMT's 200-week moving average price?
American Tower Corporation's 200-week moving average is $183.98 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is AMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 33.9%. Price-to-book is 21.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.7 years, $100 invested in AMT would have grown to $905, compared to $997 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 8.7% for the index. AMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMT pay a dividend?
Yes. American Tower Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 401.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18