AMT
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American Tower Corporation (AMT) closed at $173.36 as of 2026-07-31, trading 5.8% below its 200-week moving average of $184.07. This places AMT in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -9.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1435 weeks of data, AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.5%.
With a market cap of $80.8 billion, AMT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 33.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 21.7x book value.
Over the past 27.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMT would have grown to $902, compared to $975 for the S&P 500. AMT has returned 8.3% annualized vs 8.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,489,046. Notably, these purchases occurred while AMT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.9% after 12 months (median +59.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.1% vs +3.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $163.20 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $169.78 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $176.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $184.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $193.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +40.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 4.4% | +137.7% | +1005.2% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 7.7% | +75.7% | +956.8% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +74.2% | +974.5% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 2 | 12.0% | +106.0% | +1011.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 21.6% | +62.9% | +954.0% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2004 | 170 | 96.8% | -87.0% | +715.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 38.0% | +23.9% | +716.7% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.8% | +578.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Jul 2024 | 95 | 29.4% | -21.1% | -7.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2025 | 18 | 17.5% | -12.4% | -12.6% |
| Sep 2025 | Jun 2026 | 39 | 13.2% | N/A | -9.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 10.2% | Ongoing | -1.5% |
| Average | 33 | — | +40.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, American Tower Corporation (AMT) is trading 5.8% below its 200-week moving average of $184.07. The current price is $173.36.
What is AMT's 200-week moving average price?
American Tower Corporation's 200-week moving average is $184.07 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is AMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 33.9%. Price-to-book is 21.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.5 years, $100 invested in AMT would have grown to $902, compared to $975 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 8.6% for the index. AMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMT pay a dividend?
Yes. American Tower Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 400.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31