AMT
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American Tower Corporation (AMT) closed at $176.05 as of 2026-06-19, trading 5.0% below its 200-week moving average of $185.24. This places AMT in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -0.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1429 weeks of data, AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.5%.
With a market cap of $82.0 billion, AMT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 30.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 23.3x book value.
Over the past 27.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMT would have grown to $916, compared to $975 for the S&P 500. AMT has returned 8.4% annualized vs 8.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,489,046. Notably, these purchases occurred while AMT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.9% after 12 months (median +59.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.1% vs +3.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $166.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $172.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $179.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $187.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $195.83 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +40.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 4.4% | +137.7% | +1022.3% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 7.7% | +75.7% | +973.2% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +74.2% | +991.1% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 2 | 12.0% | +106.0% | +1028.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 21.6% | +62.9% | +970.3% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2004 | 170 | 96.8% | -87.0% | +728.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 38.0% | +23.9% | +729.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.8% | +588.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Jul 2024 | 95 | 29.3% | -21.1% | -6.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2025 | 18 | 17.4% | -12.4% | -11.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Ongoing | 42+ | 13.1% | Ongoing | -7.8% |
| Average | 36 | — | +40.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, American Tower Corporation (AMT) is trading 5.0% below its 200-week moving average of $185.24. The current price is $176.05.
What is AMT's 200-week moving average price?
American Tower Corporation's 200-week moving average is $185.24 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is AMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 5.6%. Return on equity is 30.0%. Price-to-book is 23.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.4 years, $100 invested in AMT would have grown to $916, compared to $975 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 8.7% for the index. AMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMT pay a dividend?
Yes. American Tower Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 378.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19