AMT
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American Tower Corporation (AMT) closed at $171.27 as of 2026-02-02, trading 11.3% below its 200-week moving average of $193.14. This places AMT in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -7.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1410 weeks of data, AMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.5%.
With a market cap of $80.2 billion, AMT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 28.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 20.3x book value.
Share count has increased 2.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMT would have grown to $874, compared to $897 for the S&P 500. AMT has returned 8.3% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $994,110. Notably, these purchases occurred while AMT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: AMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.9% after 12 months (median +59.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.1% vs +3.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +40.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 4.4% | +137.7% | +970.8% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 7.7% | +75.7% | +924.0% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +74.2% | +941.1% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 2 | 12.0% | +106.0% | +977.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 21.6% | +62.9% | +921.2% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2004 | 170 | 96.8% | -87.0% | +690.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 38.0% | +23.9% | +691.3% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.8% | +557.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Jul 2024 | 95 | 29.3% | -21.1% | -10.4% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2025 | 18 | 17.4% | -12.4% | -15.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Ongoing | 23+ | 13.1% | Ongoing | -12.0% |
| Average | 34 | — | +40.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02