AMGN

Amgen Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →

NO
23.6% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 30.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $273.21
14-Week RSI 39
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.0x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.90

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) closed at $337.60 as of 2026-06-19, trading 23.6% above its 200-week moving average of $273.21. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2196 weeks of data, AMGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMGN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.2%.

With a market cap of $182.2 billion, AMGN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 101.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 19.8x book value.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMGN would have grown to $6489, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AMGN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: AMGN vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After AMGN Crosses Below the Line?

Across 21 historical episodes, buying AMGN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.4% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.0% vs +22.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMGN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMGN would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +0.43σ
Current FCF Yield 4.56%
Baseline Yield 4.61%
Historical σ 0.31pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where AMGN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$316.06Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$336.64Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$360.07Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$387.02Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$418.32Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from AMGN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -1.28σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.33σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.30σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration N/A YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -1.9pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+8.8pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

AMGN has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +20.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
May 1984Apr 19854942.7%+35.6%+429031.1%
Mar 1993Apr 199369.0%+21.8%+11999.6%
May 1993Oct 19932019.9%+29.8%+11232.7%
Jan 1994May 19941518.7%+50.1%+9507.5%
Jun 1994Jul 199479.2%+56.3%+8742.0%
Apr 2002Mar 20034433.9%+29.7%+930.5%
Nov 2003Dec 200343.1%+3.0%+763.3%
Mar 2004Aug 2004219.0%+1.5%+765.7%
Sep 2004Nov 200488.8%+47.5%+777.6%
Mar 2005Apr 200510.3%+26.9%+776.9%
Feb 2007Jul 20087436.9%-26.3%+714.4%
Sep 2008Jul 20094625.4%-2.4%+732.5%
Aug 2009Sep 200931.5%-12.6%+743.6%
Sep 2009Oct 200910.9%-5.2%+758.5%
Oct 2009Jan 2010148.6%+2.5%+795.3%
Feb 2010Mar 201031.6%-4.9%+790.4%
May 2010Sep 2010208.6%+5.8%+823.4%
Nov 2010Dec 201051.8%+6.8%+823.2%
Feb 2011Apr 2011113.4%+26.6%+835.8%
Aug 2011Aug 201137.6%+61.0%+864.9%
May 2023Jun 202331.5%+45.4%+70.6%
Jul 2023Jul 202311.3%+46.6%+69.3%
Average16+20.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AMGN below its 200-week moving average?

No. Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is currently 23.6% above its 200-week moving average of $273.21. It would need to fall to $273.21 to cross below the line.

What is AMGN's 200-week moving average price?

Amgen Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $273.21 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when AMGN drops below its 200-week moving average?

AMGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.

Is AMGN a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about AMGN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 101.3%. Price-to-book is 19.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does AMGN compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AMGN would have grown to $6489, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AMGN has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does AMGN pay a dividend?

Yes. Amgen Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 290.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19