AMCR
Amcor plc Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Amcor plc (AMCR) closed at $41.08 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.3% below its 200-week moving average of $44.78. This places AMCR in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -9.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 687 weeks of data, AMCR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMCR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.9%.
With a market cap of $19.0 billion, AMCR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at 8.7%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
AMCR is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 628.00%. Share count has increased 55.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 13.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMCR would have grown to $136, compared to $586 for the S&P 500. AMCR has returned 2.3% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMCR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMCR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMCR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.0% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +20.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.5% vs +40.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMCR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMCR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMCR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.53 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $37.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.86 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $43.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMCR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMCR has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +7.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 8 | 4.3% | +27.3% | +49.2% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +16.3% | +17.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 20 | 9.9% | +3.4% | +17.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Nov 2019 | 13 | 5.8% | +18.4% | +12.1% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 31.2% | +22.6% | +16.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.9% | +25.0% | +9.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2024 | 53 | 17.3% | +1.2% | -8.9% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 8 | 5.9% | -5.4% | -9.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 8 | 6.6% | -14.6% | -12.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Feb 2026 | 47 | 17.3% | -14.8% | -12.2% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 20.0% | Ongoing | -3.5% |
| Average | 17 | — | +7.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMCR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Amcor plc (AMCR) is trading 8.3% below its 200-week moving average of $44.78. The current price is $41.08.
What is AMCR's 200-week moving average price?
Amcor plc's 200-week moving average is $44.78 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMCR drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMCR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is AMCR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMCR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 0.8%. Return on equity is 8.7%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMCR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.2 years, $100 invested in AMCR would have grown to $136, compared to $586 for the S&P 500. That's 2.3% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. AMCR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMCR pay a dividend?
Yes. Amcor plc currently pays a dividend yield of 628.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19