AMBA
Ambarella, Inc. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Investor Relations →
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) closed at $86.00 as of 2026-07-31, trading 31.6% above its 200-week moving average of $65.37. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 3.0x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 672 weeks of data, AMBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMBA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.5%.
With a market cap of $3.8 billion, AMBA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Return on equity stands at -11.8%. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
Share count has increased 10.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMBA would have grown to $430, compared to $552 for the S&P 500. AMBA has returned 12.0% annualized vs 14.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMBA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMBA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMBA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.7% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.1% vs +41.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMBA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMBA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMBA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $35.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $59.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $89.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $182.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMBA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMBA has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +32.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 5.3% | +27.9% | +125.1% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +34.7% | +119.4% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 8.3% | +52.2% | +124.7% |
| Jun 2017 | Oct 2017 | 19 | 19.3% | -10.6% | +76.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Aug 2019 | 84 | 42.2% | -29.3% | +67.4% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 8 | 20.3% | +151.8% | +90.3% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 10 | 10.8% | +100.3% | +75.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 18.0% | +27.2% | +27.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 38.1% | +1.4% | +36.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Aug 2025 | 130 | 52.7% | -30.8% | +4.2% |
| Jan 2026 | Apr 2026 | 12 | 23.2% | N/A | +34.3% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 2.9% | N/A | +35.4% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 4.5% | N/A | +38.4% |
| Jul 2026 | Jul 2026 | 1 | 5.1% | N/A | +39.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +32.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) is currently 31.6% above its 200-week moving average of $65.37. It would need to fall to $65.37 to cross below the line.
What is AMBA's 200-week moving average price?
Ambarella, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $65.37 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMBA drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is AMBA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMBA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 1.3%. Return on equity is -11.8%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMBA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.9 years, $100 invested in AMBA would have grown to $430, compared to $552 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 14.1% for the index. AMBA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31