AMBA
Ambarella, Inc. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Investor Relations →
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) closed at $54.02 as of 2026-03-20, trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $65.94. This places AMBA in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -20.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, AMBA is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 653 weeks of data, AMBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMBA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.5%.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, AMBA is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -13.1%. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
Share count has increased 12.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMBA would have grown to $270, compared to $480 for the S&P 500. AMBA has returned 8.2% annualized vs 13.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMBA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMBA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AMBA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.7% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.1% vs +42.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMBA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AMBA has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +32.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 5.3% | +27.9% | +41.4% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +34.7% | +37.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 8.3% | +52.2% | +41.2% |
| Jun 2017 | Oct 2017 | 19 | 19.3% | -10.6% | +10.7% |
| Jan 2018 | Aug 2019 | 84 | 42.2% | -29.3% | +5.1% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 8 | 20.3% | +151.8% | +19.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 10 | 10.8% | +100.3% | +10.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 18.0% | +27.2% | -19.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 38.1% | +1.4% | -14.1% |
| Feb 2023 | Aug 2025 | 130 | 52.7% | -30.8% | -34.6% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 20.9% | Ongoing | -15.6% |
| Average | 26 | — | +32.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) is trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $65.94. The current price is $54.02.
What is AMBA's 200-week moving average price?
Ambarella, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $65.94 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMBA drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is AMBA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMBA as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Return on equity is -13.1%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMBA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.6 years, $100 invested in AMBA would have grown to $270, compared to $480 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 13.3% for the index. AMBA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20