AMBA
Ambarella, Inc. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Investor Relations →
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) closed at $63.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 4.5% below its 200-week moving average of $66.61. This places AMBA in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, AMBA is in oversold territory.
Over the past 647 weeks of data, AMBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMBA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.5%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, AMBA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.2%. Return on equity stands at -13.9%. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Share count has increased 12.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMBA would have grown to $318, compared to $510 for the S&P 500. AMBA has returned 9.7% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AMBA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMBA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying AMBA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.7% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +22.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.1% vs +42.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMBA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AMBA has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +32.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 5.3% | +27.9% | +66.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +34.7% | +62.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 8.3% | +52.2% | +66.3% |
| Jun 2017 | Oct 2017 | 19 | 19.3% | -10.6% | +30.4% |
| Jan 2018 | Aug 2019 | 84 | 42.2% | -29.3% | +23.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 8 | 20.3% | +151.8% | +40.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 10 | 10.8% | +100.3% | +30.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 18.0% | +27.2% | -5.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 38.1% | +1.4% | +1.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Aug 2025 | 130 | 52.7% | -30.8% | -22.9% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 4.5% | Ongoing | -0.6% |
| Average | 26 | — | +32.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02