AM
Antero Midstream Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Midstream Investor Relations →
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) closed at $21.19 as of 2026-09-18, trading 46.8% above its 200-week moving average of $14.44. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 53.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 441 weeks of data, AM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 76 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.7%.
With a market cap of $10.1 billion, AM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 19.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.
Over the past 8.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AM would have grown to $272, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. AM has returned 12.5% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 61.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying AM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.0% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +6.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -8.0% vs +8.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.47 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $21.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.09 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.33 | $0.27 | -18.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.30 | $0.29 | -3.6% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.27 | $0.28 | +2.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.29 | $0.27 | -7.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AM has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +15.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2018 | Mar 2021 | 151 | 81.9% | -8.3% | +188.1% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 2 | 2.7% | +39.7% | +265.8% |
| Average | 76 | — | +15.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) is currently 46.8% above its 200-week moving average of $14.44. It would need to fall to $14.44 to cross below the line.
What is AM's 200-week moving average price?
Antero Midstream Corporation's 200-week moving average is $14.44 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AM drops below its 200-week moving average?
AM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 76 weeks on average.
Is AM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 19.8%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.5 years, $100 invested in AM would have grown to $272, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. That's 12.5% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. AM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AM pay a dividend?
Yes. Antero Midstream Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 424.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18