ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) closed at $32.75 as of 2026-09-18, trading 59.8% above its 200-week moving average of $20.50. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 62.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1178 weeks of data, ALRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALRS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.7%.
With a market cap of $816 million, ALRS is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 5.0%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 27.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 22.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALRS would have grown to $1121, compared to $1003 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming ALRS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALRS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALRS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying ALRS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.4% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +22.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.8% vs +38.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALRS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALRS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALRS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $29.91 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $32.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $38.67 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.86 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.81 | $0.80 | -0.6% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.59 | $0.89 | +51.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.57 | $0.85 | +49.6% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALRS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALRS has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +15.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2010 | 106 | 27.6% | -2.0% | +590.7% |
| Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | 2 | 3.7% | +4.6% | +504.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 14 | 9.9% | +22.7% | +552.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 0.7% | +27.4% | +166.5% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 2 | 1.9% | +27.4% | +166.5% |
| Apr 2019 | Jul 2019 | 16 | 2.5% | -14.8% | +117.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 13 | 21.0% | +68.2% | +118.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 2.6% | +76.4% | +111.0% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +47.4% | +105.7% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 4.5% | +61.5% | +111.5% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 2 | 1.2% | -16.2% | +67.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 5.8% | -15.4% | +64.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 2 | 0.8% | -14.4% | +63.1% |
| Jan 2023 | Dec 2023 | 49 | 39.4% | -2.7% | +63.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 3 | 5.6% | -6.9% | +67.5% |
| Feb 2024 | Aug 2024 | 26 | 18.3% | -1.3% | +65.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 3 | 5.2% | +10.6% | +66.1% |
| Oct 2024 | May 2025 | 27 | 23.2% | +9.2% | +73.8% |
| Average | 16 | — | +15.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALRS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) is currently 59.8% above its 200-week moving average of $20.50. It would need to fall to $20.50 to cross below the line.
What is ALRS's 200-week moving average price?
Alerus Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $20.50 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALRS drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is ALRS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALRS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Return on equity is 5.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALRS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22.7 years, $100 invested in ALRS would have grown to $1121, compared to $1003 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. ALRS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ALRS pay a dividend?
Yes. Alerus Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 268.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18