ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) closed at $48.22 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.2% below its 200-week moving average of $58.22. This places ALRM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -16.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 506 weeks of data, ALRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.3%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, ALRM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 15.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALRM would have grown to $224, compared to $386 for the S&P 500. ALRM has returned 8.6% annualized vs 14.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ALRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ALRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.7% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +25.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 29% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.0% vs +53.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ALRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +31.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 13.5% | +139.1% | +32.1% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +114.6% | +15.3% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 7 | 10.9% | -20.3% | -21.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 5.9% | -17.8% | -21.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Feb 2024 | 73 | 29.4% | -3.3% | -24.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Dec 2024 | 34 | 22.0% | -24.3% | -28.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 60+ | 20.5% | Ongoing | -23.4% |
| Average | 26 | — | +31.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02