ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) closed at $44.37 as of 2026-03-20, trading 23.3% below its 200-week moving average of $57.83. This places ALRM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -19.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, ALRM is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.34 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 512 weeks of data, ALRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.3%.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion, ALRM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 15.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 9.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALRM would have grown to $206, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. ALRM has returned 7.6% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 68.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ALRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.7% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +25.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 29% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.0% vs +53.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ALRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +31.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 13.5% | +139.1% | +21.6% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +114.6% | +6.1% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 7 | 10.9% | -20.3% | -27.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 5.9% | -17.8% | -27.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Feb 2024 | 73 | 29.4% | -3.3% | -30.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Dec 2024 | 34 | 22.0% | -24.3% | -34.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 66+ | 23.3% | Ongoing | -29.5% |
| Average | 27 | — | +31.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALRM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) is trading 23.3% below its 200-week moving average of $57.83. The current price is $44.37.
What is ALRM's 200-week moving average price?
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $57.83 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALRM drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is ALRM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALRM as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Return on equity is 15.8%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALRM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.9 years, $100 invested in ALRM would have grown to $206, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. ALRM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20