ALLY
Ally Financial Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) closed at $45.49 as of 2026-06-19, trading 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $33.13. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 34.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, ALLY is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 598 weeks of data, ALLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.7%.
With a market cap of $13.9 billion, ALLY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 3.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALLY would have grown to $320, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. ALLY has returned 10.7% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying ALLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.4% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +19.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +63.2% vs +42.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ALLY currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +21.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jun 2015 | 23 | 22.0% | -29.3% | +151.0% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2017 | 83 | 29.9% | -26.5% | +163.7% |
| Mar 2017 | Jun 2017 | 14 | 9.8% | +32.3% | +196.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +47.9% | +168.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 | 27 | 51.8% | +128.8% | +170.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.1% | -9.9% | +59.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | 2 | 1.9% | -5.6% | +58.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2023 | 67 | 33.2% | -7.7% | +58.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2024 | 8 | 6.3% | +32.4% | +45.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +35.4% | +36.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.6% | +38.1% | +39.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 1.4% | +9.5% | +38.8% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 7.6% | +28.1% | +47.2% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.9% | +39.5% |
| Average | 17 | — | +21.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is currently 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $33.13. It would need to fall to $33.13 to cross below the line.
What is ALLY's 200-week moving average price?
Ally Financial Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $33.13 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is ALLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALLY as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.5 years, $100 invested in ALLY would have grown to $320, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. ALLY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19