ALLE
Allegion plc Industrials - Security Products Investor Relations →
Allegion plc (ALLE) closed at $157.40 as of 2026-07-31, trading 22.3% above its 200-week moving average of $128.75. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 19.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 614 weeks of data, ALLE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALLE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.
With a market cap of $13.4 billion, ALLE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 33.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALLE would have grown to $337, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. ALLE has returned 10.8% annualized vs 13.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALLE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALLE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ALLE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.5% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +26.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.2% vs +50.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALLE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALLE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALLE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $122.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $129.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $136.85 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $155.32 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALLE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALLE has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 2.8% | +46.6% | +106.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | -5.1% | +56.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 17.6% | +6.9% | +55.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 5.3% | +2.7% | +51.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 13 | 10.1% | +23.7% | +53.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 18 | 12.6% | +17.5% | +46.8% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | +25.8% |
| Average | 9 | — | +15.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Allegion plc (ALLE) is currently 22.3% above its 200-week moving average of $128.75. It would need to fall to $128.75 to cross below the line.
What is ALLE's 200-week moving average price?
Allegion plc's 200-week moving average is $128.75 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALLE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALLE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is ALLE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALLE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 33.7%. Price-to-book is 6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALLE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in ALLE would have grown to $337, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. ALLE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ALLE pay a dividend?
Yes. Allegion plc currently pays a dividend yield of 135.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31