ALLE
Allegion plc Industrials - Security Products Investor Relations →
Allegion plc (ALLE) closed at $152.28 as of 2026-09-18, trading 16.7% above its 200-week moving average of $130.49. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 17.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 621 weeks of data, ALLE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALLE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.
With a market cap of $12.9 billion, ALLE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 33.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
Over the past 12 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALLE would have grown to $328, compared to $461 for the S&P 500. ALLE has returned 10.4% annualized vs 13.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALLE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALLE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ALLE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.5% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +26.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.2% vs +50.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALLE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALLE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALLE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $122.22 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $131.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $142.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $155.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $171.80 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $2.22 | $2.40 | +8.3% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.90 | $1.80 | -5.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.98 | $1.94 | -2.0% |
| 2025-10-23 | $2.24 | $2.30 | +2.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALLE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALLE has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 2.8% | +46.6% | +100.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | -5.1% | +51.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 17.6% | +6.9% | +51.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 5.3% | +2.7% | +47.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 13 | 10.1% | +23.7% | +48.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 18 | 12.6% | +17.5% | +42.5% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | +22.1% |
| Average | 9 | — | +15.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Allegion plc (ALLE) is currently 16.7% above its 200-week moving average of $130.49. It would need to fall to $130.49 to cross below the line.
What is ALLE's 200-week moving average price?
Allegion plc's 200-week moving average is $130.49 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALLE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALLE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is ALLE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALLE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 33.7%. Price-to-book is 6.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALLE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12 years, $100 invested in ALLE would have grown to $328, compared to $461 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. ALLE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ALLE pay a dividend?
Yes. Allegion plc currently pays a dividend yield of 143.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18