ALL
The Allstate Corporation Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) closed at $221.17 as of 2026-06-19, trading 37.4% above its 200-week moving average of $160.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1676 weeks of data, ALL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.0%.
With a market cap of $56.9 billion, ALL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 21.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 45.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
ALL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 32.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALL would have grown to $3678, compared to $2881 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming ALL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying ALL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.2% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.9% vs +21.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $198.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $203.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $209.72 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $216.07 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $222.82 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALL has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +25.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1994 | Feb 1995 | 41 | 13.8% | +33.1% | +3728.4% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 2000 | 59 | 47.3% | -8.6% | +1179.3% |
| Jul 2001 | Sep 2001 | 10 | 9.3% | +8.3% | +1122.0% |
| Oct 2001 | Feb 2002 | 18 | 8.5% | +9.3% | +1090.1% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 4.1% | +51.9% | +1146.6% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 2.0% | -46.8% | +580.4% |
| Nov 2007 | Apr 2011 | 179 | 70.2% | -55.6% | +596.1% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 38 | 26.2% | +10.9% | +856.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 16.4% | +57.0% | +247.8% |
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 1 | 3.9% | +57.2% | +193.8% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 0.3% | +47.1% | +178.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 3 | 3.7% | +43.7% | +178.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 4.6% | +58.8% | +126.5% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 2 | 1.5% | +54.9% | +117.4% |
| Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | 13 | 8.7% | +53.2% | +119.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +25.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALL below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is currently 37.4% above its 200-week moving average of $160.99. It would need to fall to $160.99 to cross below the line.
What is ALL's 200-week moving average price?
The Allstate Corporation's 200-week moving average is $160.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is ALL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 21.8%. Return on equity is 45.2%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.2 years, $100 invested in ALL would have grown to $3678, compared to $2881 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. ALL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ALL pay a dividend?
Yes. The Allstate Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 194.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19