ALKS
Alkermes plc Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Investor Relations →
Alkermes plc (ALKS) closed at $44.99 as of 2026-06-19, trading 56.5% above its 200-week moving average of $28.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, ALKS is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.51 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1774 weeks of data, ALKS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALKS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.7%.
With a market cap of $7.5 billion, ALKS is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALKS would have grown to $1000, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. ALKS has returned 7.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALKS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALKS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 33 historical episodes, buying ALKS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.8% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +6.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.5% vs +12.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALKS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALKS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALKS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.73 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.60 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $53.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $75.34 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALKS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALKS has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +11.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1992 | Dec 1995 | 182 | 77.4% | -18.9% | +872.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 12.8% | +203.1% | +649.8% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 10.8% | +204.1% | +634.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 22.5% | -57.7% | +149.3% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.7% | -71.6% | +88.2% |
| Apr 2002 | Jul 2005 | 170 | 84.5% | -57.7% | +104.5% |
| Sep 2006 | Sep 2006 | 1 | 7.3% | +28.9% | +241.4% |
| Dec 2006 | Jan 2007 | 4 | 9.5% | +4.2% | +218.6% |
| Jan 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 0.8% | -7.5% | +203.8% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | -26.1% | +198.9% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 8 | 6.9% | -16.0% | +200.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 7 | 15.1% | -30.4% | +217.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Aug 2008 | 31 | 28.9% | -27.6% | +204.2% |
| Aug 2008 | Mar 2010 | 84 | 59.1% | -30.5% | +200.3% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 15.8% | +24.7% | +287.8% |
| Oct 2010 | Jan 2011 | 11 | 14.8% | +55.1% | +306.4% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | +35.7% | +270.6% |
| Jan 2016 | May 2016 | 18 | 29.7% | +54.8% | +24.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 6.9% | +44.6% | +5.5% |
| Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | 4 | 2.9% | +14.7% | +1.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 2 | 9.5% | +12.7% | -1.6% |
| Aug 2017 | Dec 2017 | 20 | 11.0% | -15.2% | -13.3% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 0.7% | -42.8% | -16.5% |
| Apr 2018 | Aug 2021 | 176 | 68.0% | -11.9% | +6.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Mar 2022 | 18 | 20.6% | -1.6% | +87.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 5.3% | +26.7% | +92.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 0.8% | +9.2% | +88.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 15 | 7.7% | +10.6% | +84.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 0.6% | +14.2% | +72.4% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | +23.6% | +66.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 5.3% | N/A | +72.2% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | +66.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2 | 1.5% | N/A | +62.1% |
| Average | 24 | — | +11.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALKS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Alkermes plc (ALKS) is currently 56.5% above its 200-week moving average of $28.74. It would need to fall to $28.74 to cross below the line.
What is ALKS's 200-week moving average price?
Alkermes plc's 200-week moving average is $28.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALKS drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALKS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is ALKS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALKS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALKS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ALKS would have grown to $1000, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ALKS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19