ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) closed at $59.45 as of 2026-02-02, trading 27.7% above its 200-week moving average of $46.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, ALK is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, ALK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.6%.
With a market cap of $6.9 billion, ALK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 2.4%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALK would have grown to $1579, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. ALK has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ALK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying ALK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -5.6% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +4.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 39% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.5% vs +21.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ALK has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +17.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 6 | 6.1% | +207.5% | +5667.3% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 2.5% | +226.3% | +5667.3% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 4 | 7.3% | +54.5% | +1762.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1988 | 26 | 28.7% | +39.7% | +1673.9% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 5 | 8.1% | +63.7% | +1498.5% |
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 4 | 5.0% | +49.5% | +1397.6% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 0.6% | +18.6% | +1336.3% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 3.0% | -7.3% | +1270.9% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 25 | 28.6% | +15.6% | +1204.3% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 11 | 13.7% | -23.1% | +1248.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Jun 1995 | 171 | 35.0% | -20.9% | +1177.7% |
| Sep 1995 | Nov 1995 | 9 | 16.9% | +18.2% | +1502.7% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.1% | +36.2% | +1527.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Aug 2003 | 194 | 51.4% | -25.0% | +641.0% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 2.2% | +29.2% | +938.2% |
| Feb 2004 | Oct 2004 | 35 | 24.0% | +14.8% | +927.3% |
| Apr 2007 | Nov 2009 | 132 | 61.7% | -27.2% | +781.2% |
| Oct 2017 | Dec 2017 | 6 | 7.3% | -5.8% | -6.0% |
| Jan 2018 | Oct 2019 | 91 | 23.0% | +0.3% | -3.4% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -25.6% | -11.3% |
| Dec 2019 | Feb 2021 | 59 | 64.8% | -21.9% | -10.7% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 5.2% | -24.4% | +8.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 5 | 4.9% | -16.4% | +9.4% |
| Oct 2021 | Feb 2022 | 16 | 14.0% | -23.8% | +10.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 12.8% | -1.4% | +21.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 6.5% | -19.6% | +13.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2023 | 61 | 27.2% | -20.1% | +9.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Oct 2024 | 66 | 36.0% | -18.0% | +23.5% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 11.7% | N/A | +33.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | N/A | +26.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 6 | 15.5% | N/A | +35.8% |
| Average | 31 | — | +17.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02