ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) closed at $36.91 as of 2026-03-20, trading 20.4% below its 200-week moving average of $46.39. This places ALK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, ALK is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2352 weeks of data, ALK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.6%.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, ALK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 2.4%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALK would have grown to $980, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. ALK has returned 7.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying ALK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.2% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 37% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.5% vs +21.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ALK has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +17.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 6 | 6.1% | +207.5% | +3480.7% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 2.5% | +226.3% | +3480.7% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 4 | 7.3% | +54.5% | +1056.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1988 | 26 | 28.7% | +39.7% | +1001.4% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 5 | 8.1% | +63.7% | +892.5% |
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 4 | 5.0% | +49.5% | +829.8% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 0.6% | +18.6% | +791.7% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 3.0% | -7.3% | +751.1% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 25 | 28.6% | +15.6% | +709.8% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 11 | 13.7% | -23.1% | +737.1% |
| Mar 1992 | Jun 1995 | 171 | 35.0% | -20.9% | +693.2% |
| Sep 1995 | Nov 1995 | 9 | 16.9% | +18.2% | +895.0% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.1% | +36.2% | +910.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Aug 2003 | 194 | 51.4% | -25.0% | +360.0% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 2.2% | +29.2% | +544.6% |
| Feb 2004 | Oct 2004 | 35 | 24.0% | +14.8% | +537.8% |
| Apr 2007 | Nov 2009 | 132 | 61.7% | -27.2% | +447.1% |
| Oct 2017 | Dec 2017 | 6 | 7.3% | -5.8% | -41.6% |
| Jan 2018 | Oct 2019 | 91 | 23.0% | +0.3% | -40.0% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -25.6% | -44.9% |
| Dec 2019 | Feb 2021 | 59 | 64.8% | -21.9% | -44.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 5.2% | -24.4% | -32.4% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 5 | 4.9% | -16.4% | -32.1% |
| Oct 2021 | Feb 2022 | 16 | 14.0% | -23.8% | -31.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 12.8% | -1.4% | -24.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 6.5% | -19.6% | -29.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2023 | 61 | 27.2% | -20.1% | -32.1% |
| Jul 2023 | Oct 2024 | 66 | 36.0% | -18.0% | -23.3% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 11.7% | N/A | -17.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | N/A | -21.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 6 | 15.5% | N/A | -15.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 20.4% | Ongoing | -12.7% |
| Average | 30 | — | +17.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is trading 20.4% below its 200-week moving average of $46.39. The current price is $36.91.
What is ALK's 200-week moving average price?
Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $46.39 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALK drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is ALK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALK as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 2.4%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in ALK would have grown to $980, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 7.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ALK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20