AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financial Services - Insurance Brokers Investor Relations →
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) closed at $239.48 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.7% below its 200-week moving average of $248.76. This places AJG in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2156 weeks of data, AJG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AJG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.1%.
With a market cap of $61.4 billion, AJG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Share count has increased 21.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AJG would have grown to $9051, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AJG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AJG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AJG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying AJG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.9% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.4% vs +27.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AJG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AJG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AJG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $227.55 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $238.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $249.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $262.30 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $276.37 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $2.81 | $2.84 | +0.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $4.43 | $4.47 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | $2.35 | $2.38 | +1.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | $2.54 | $2.32 | -8.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AJG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AJG has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +15.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1987 | Jul 1989 | 118 | 31.6% | -23.1% | +14449.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 5 | 2.5% | +32.0% | +13449.3% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.5% | +7.5% | +7459.7% |
| Oct 1996 | Mar 1997 | 20 | 6.6% | +24.6% | +7358.1% |
| Apr 1997 | May 1997 | 2 | 1.2% | +45.8% | +7129.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Jul 2003 | 1 | 0.5% | +23.4% | +1805.1% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 3 | 4.4% | +10.8% | +1601.9% |
| Mar 2005 | Aug 2005 | 23 | 7.5% | +3.9% | +1489.4% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 14 | 8.7% | +15.5% | +1534.3% |
| Aug 2006 | Oct 2006 | 8 | 1.7% | +13.3% | +1494.1% |
| Oct 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +7.9% | +1500.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Aug 2008 | 41 | 12.5% | -10.3% | +1440.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 10.7% | -0.4% | +1435.4% |
| Jan 2009 | Aug 2009 | 30 | 36.5% | -4.1% | +1470.7% |
| Oct 2009 | Feb 2010 | 14 | 4.6% | +32.9% | +1538.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +32.9% | +615.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 7.3% | +43.3% | +649.1% |
| Feb 2026 | Jun 2026 | 20 | 18.6% | N/A | +15.9% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 3.7% | Ongoing | -0.3% |
| Average | 17 | — | +15.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is trading 3.7% below its 200-week moving average of $248.76. The current price is $239.48.
What is AJG's 200-week moving average price?
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s 200-week moving average is $248.76 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AJG drops below its 200-week moving average?
AJG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is AJG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AJG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AJG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AJG would have grown to $9051, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AJG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AJG pay a dividend?
Yes. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 116.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18