AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financial Services - Insurance Brokers Investor Relations →
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) closed at $214.82 as of 2026-03-20, trading 11.3% below its 200-week moving average of $242.16. This places AJG in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -14.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2130 weeks of data, AJG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AJG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $55.2 billion, AJG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Share count has increased 21.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AJG would have grown to $8070, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming AJG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,007,272. Notably, these purchases occurred while AJG is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AJG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AJG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying AJG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.8% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.3% vs +27.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AJG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AJG has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1987 | Jul 1989 | 118 | 31.6% | -23.1% | +12873.4% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 5 | 2.4% | +32.0% | +11981.5% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.5% | +7.5% | +6640.7% |
| Oct 1996 | Mar 1997 | 20 | 6.6% | +24.6% | +6550.2% |
| Apr 1997 | May 1997 | 2 | 1.2% | +45.8% | +6346.2% |
| Jul 2003 | Jul 2003 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.4% | +1598.7% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 3 | 4.4% | +10.8% | +1417.5% |
| Mar 2005 | Aug 2005 | 22 | 7.5% | +0.6% | +1317.7% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 14 | 8.7% | +15.5% | +1357.3% |
| Aug 2006 | Oct 2006 | 8 | 1.6% | +13.3% | +1321.4% |
| Oct 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +7.9% | +1327.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Aug 2008 | 41 | 12.4% | -10.3% | +1273.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 10.6% | -1.6% | +1269.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Aug 2009 | 30 | 36.4% | -4.1% | +1300.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Feb 2010 | 14 | 4.6% | +32.9% | +1360.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +32.9% | +538.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 7.3% | +43.3% | +568.0% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 14.0% | Ongoing | +3.4% |
| Average | 17 | — | +14.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is trading 11.3% below its 200-week moving average of $242.16. The current price is $214.82.
What is AJG's 200-week moving average price?
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s 200-week moving average is $242.16 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AJG drops below its 200-week moving average?
AJG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is AJG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AJG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Return on equity is 6.9%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AJG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in AJG would have grown to $8070, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 14.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. AJG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AJG pay a dividend?
Yes. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 130.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20