AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financial Services - Insurance Brokers Investor Relations →
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) closed at $241.58 as of 2026-02-02, trading 0.1% above its 200-week moving average of $241.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2124 weeks of data, AJG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AJG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $62.1 billion, AJG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
Share count has increased 19.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AJG would have grown to $9048, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming AJG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: AJG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AJG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying AJG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.8% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.3% vs +27.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AJG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AJG has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1987 | Jul 1989 | 118 | 31.6% | -23.1% | +14445.0% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 5 | 2.4% | +32.0% | +13445.1% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.5% | +7.5% | +7457.3% |
| Oct 1996 | Mar 1997 | 20 | 6.6% | +24.6% | +7355.8% |
| Apr 1997 | May 1997 | 2 | 1.2% | +45.8% | +7127.1% |
| Jul 2003 | Jul 2003 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.4% | +1804.5% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 3 | 4.4% | +10.8% | +1601.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Aug 2005 | 22 | 7.5% | +0.6% | +1489.5% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 14 | 8.7% | +15.5% | +1533.8% |
| Aug 2006 | Oct 2006 | 8 | 1.6% | +13.3% | +1493.6% |
| Oct 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +7.9% | +1500.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Aug 2008 | 41 | 12.4% | -10.3% | +1439.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 10.6% | -1.6% | +1434.9% |
| Jan 2009 | Aug 2009 | 30 | 36.4% | -4.1% | +1470.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Feb 2010 | 14 | 4.6% | +32.9% | +1537.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +32.9% | +615.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 7.3% | +43.3% | +648.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +14.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02