AIZ
Assurant Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Assurant Inc. (AIZ) closed at $282.23 as of 2026-09-18, trading 53.3% above its 200-week moving average of $184.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, AIZ is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1132 weeks of data, AIZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AIZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.5%.
With a market cap of $13.9 billion, AIZ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.7% over the past three years. AIZ passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 21.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AIZ would have grown to $1235, compared to $958 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.3% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming AIZ as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 57.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AIZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AIZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying AIZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.1% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +21.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.1% vs +42.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AIZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AIZ would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AIZ's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $257.18 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $277.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $301.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $330.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $365.04 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $5.18 | $6.41 | +23.7% |
| 2026-05-05 | $5.33 | $5.95 | +11.7% |
| 2026-02-10 | $5.50 | $5.61 | +1.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | $4.28 | $5.73 | +34.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AIZ's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AIZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +29.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2011 | 124 | 69.4% | -34.9% | +726.9% |
| Feb 2011 | Oct 2011 | 33 | 15.2% | +11.7% | +875.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.5% | -3.0% | +937.3% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 2 | 1.4% | +52.9% | +1018.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 6.5% | +61.3% | +247.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 7.4% | +80.8% | +247.0% |
| Oct 2022 | Jul 2023 | 39 | 21.9% | +37.8% | +149.1% |
| Average | 29 | — | +29.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIZ below its 200-week moving average?
No. Assurant Inc. (AIZ) is currently 53.3% above its 200-week moving average of $184.13. It would need to fall to $184.13 to cross below the line.
What is AIZ's 200-week moving average price?
Assurant Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $184.13 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AIZ drops below its 200-week moving average?
AIZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is AIZ a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AIZ as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 15.4%. Return on equity is 18.3%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AIZ compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.8 years, $100 invested in AIZ would have grown to $1235, compared to $958 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. AIZ has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AIZ pay a dividend?
Yes. Assurant Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 125.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18