AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. Industrials - Industrial Distribution Investor Relations →
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) closed at $321.84 as of 2026-09-18, trading 49.5% above its 200-week moving average of $215.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 51.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, AIT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AIT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.7%.
With a market cap of $11.8 billion, AIT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 22.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.8% reduction over three years. AIT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AIT would have grown to $15158, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AIT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AIT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AIT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying AIT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.6% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.0% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AIT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AIT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AIT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $307.80 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $334.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $366.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $405.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $453.14 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $2.92 | $3.17 | +8.7% |
| 2026-04-28 | $2.65 | $2.65 | +0.2% |
| 2026-01-27 | $2.50 | $2.51 | +0.6% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.48 | $2.63 | +5.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AIT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AIT has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +20.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 7.4% | +23.4% | +36144.7% |
| Jul 1981 | Aug 1981 | 2 | 1.1% | +11.2% | +33139.1% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 2 | 2.6% | +15.9% | +33800.5% |
| Jun 1982 | Jun 1982 | 2 | 0.6% | +43.7% | +31593.1% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 4 | 2.6% | +33.0% | +31593.1% |
| Jun 1984 | Jul 1984 | 7 | 3.8% | +18.7% | +28291.7% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 1 | 2.2% | +23.5% | +26621.6% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 8 | 3.6% | +8.5% | +26310.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Jan 1987 | 23 | 8.4% | +26.1% | +24951.5% |
| Jan 1987 | Feb 1987 | 1 | 0.4% | +30.4% | +24063.1% |
| Mar 1987 | Mar 1987 | 1 | 0.0% | +40.4% | +23893.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 9 | 12.3% | +71.5% | +25907.7% |
| Aug 1990 | Apr 1991 | 35 | 33.3% | +1.7% | +16724.9% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 1 | 1.2% | -2.4% | +16067.6% |
| Jul 1991 | Jan 1992 | 24 | 17.8% | -12.7% | +15972.5% |
| Feb 1992 | Feb 1992 | 1 | 1.3% | +5.1% | +15437.4% |
| Apr 1992 | Apr 1992 | 1 | 0.2% | +14.6% | +15258.9% |
| Apr 1992 | Nov 1992 | 28 | 20.0% | +17.4% | +15807.4% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | 12.0% | -15.3% | +6876.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 2000 | 119 | 37.9% | -13.2% | +7206.0% |
| Jan 2001 | Apr 2001 | 12 | 9.6% | +5.9% | +6766.7% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.3% | +20.4% | +6547.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +2.9% | +6823.4% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 4 | 2.3% | +11.3% | +7030.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 6.2% | +48.0% | +7292.2% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | +46.7% | +7074.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 3 | 3.0% | +66.1% | +6958.6% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 3.2% | +29.7% | +6740.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 3.1% | -15.4% | +1840.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2010 | 66 | 38.5% | -16.2% | +1751.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 8.0% | +39.2% | +1759.2% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 3 | 1.5% | -4.1% | +860.4% |
| Jun 2015 | Mar 2016 | 39 | 11.2% | +11.5% | +832.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 1.3% | +28.6% | +570.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 1.7% | -6.9% | +537.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 12 | 8.6% | +24.2% | +534.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 13 | 40.3% | +66.9% | +515.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +54.1% | +482.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 5 | 10.6% | +52.2% | +495.3% |
| Average | 12 | — | +20.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) is currently 49.5% above its 200-week moving average of $215.24. It would need to fall to $215.24 to cross below the line.
What is AIT's 200-week moving average price?
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $215.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AIT drops below its 200-week moving average?
AIT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is AIT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AIT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 22.4%. Price-to-book is 6.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AIT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AIT would have grown to $15158, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 16.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AIT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AIT pay a dividend?
Yes. Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 64.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18