AI
C3.ai Inc. Technology - AI Software Investor Relations →
C3.ai Inc. (AI) closed at $11.65 as of 2026-02-02, trading 50.3% below its 200-week moving average of $23.46. This places AI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -53.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, AI is in oversold territory.
Over the past 221 weeks of data, AI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 68 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -68.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1640 million, AI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at -46.8%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Share count has increased 26.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AI would have grown to $39, compared to $161 for the S&P 500. AI has returned -19.5% annualized vs 11.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: AI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying AI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -52.5% after 12 months (median -50.0%), compared to +4.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was +4.0% vs +3.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AI has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-68.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2024 | 157 | 76.4% | -68.0% | -70.8% |
| Feb 2025 | Jul 2025 | 20 | 32.1% | N/A | -59.1% |
| Jul 2025 | Ongoing | 28+ | 53.2% | Ongoing | -48.1% |
| Average | 68 | — | +-68.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02