AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) closed at $70.35 as of 2026-09-18, trading 5.6% below its 200-week moving average of $74.51. This places AGO in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -2.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1121 weeks of data, AGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.1 billion, AGO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.5%. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 23.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGO would have grown to $546, compared to $956 for the S&P 500. AGO has returned 8.2% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AGO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AGO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.4% after 12 months (median -26.0%), compared to +2.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.5% vs +13.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AGO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AGO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.73 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $74.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.07 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $84.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $89.63 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $1.60 | $1.23 | -23.2% |
| 2026-05-07 | $1.63 | $2.50 | +53.4% |
| 2026-02-26 | $1.56 | $2.32 | +48.4% |
| 2025-11-06 | $1.54 | $2.57 | +67.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AGO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AGO has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 33.0% | -26.3% | +530.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 23.7% | -49.8% | +323.4% |
| May 2008 | Jun 2008 | 2 | 2.6% | -42.9% | +324.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 73 | 83.5% | -43.8% | +361.8% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 1.1% | -24.3% | +367.6% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 23 | 33.4% | -4.4% | +431.3% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 10.8% | -36.3% | +414.2% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 51 | 42.4% | -5.5% | +446.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Jan 2013 | 41 | 22.2% | +40.6% | +521.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 43 | 48.6% | +31.4% | +128.2% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 1.5% | +45.0% | +112.6% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 5.6% | Ongoing | -3.5% |
| Average | 22 | — | +-10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is trading 5.6% below its 200-week moving average of $74.51. The current price is $70.35.
What is AGO's 200-week moving average price?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $74.51 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AGO drops below its 200-week moving average?
AGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -10.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is AGO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AGO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 0.5%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AGO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.6 years, $100 invested in AGO would have grown to $546, compared to $956 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AGO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AGO pay a dividend?
Yes. Assured Guaranty Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 214.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18