AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) closed at $80.81 as of 2026-03-20, trading 12.5% above its 200-week moving average of $71.81. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1095 weeks of data, AGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.7 billion, AGO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 23.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGO would have grown to $621, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. AGO has returned 9.0% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AGO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AGO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.4% after 12 months (median -26.0%), compared to +2.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.5% vs +13.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AGO has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 33.0% | -26.3% | +616.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 23.7% | -49.8% | +381.4% |
| May 2008 | Jun 2008 | 2 | 2.8% | -43.0% | +383.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 73 | 83.5% | -43.8% | +425.1% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 1.1% | -24.3% | +431.8% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 23 | 33.4% | -4.4% | +504.2% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 11.0% | -36.3% | +484.8% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 51 | 42.4% | -5.5% | +520.9% |
| Apr 2012 | Jan 2013 | 41 | 22.1% | +40.6% | +606.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 43 | 48.5% | +31.5% | +161.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 1.5% | +45.0% | +141.8% |
| Average | 23 | — | +-10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is currently 12.5% above its 200-week moving average of $71.81. It would need to fall to $71.81 to cross below the line.
What is AGO's 200-week moving average price?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $71.81 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AGO drops below its 200-week moving average?
AGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -10.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is AGO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AGO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 11.0%. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AGO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.1 years, $100 invested in AGO would have grown to $621, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. AGO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AGO pay a dividend?
Yes. Assured Guaranty Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 188.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20