AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) closed at $87.75 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.3% above its 200-week moving average of $71.19. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 19.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1089 weeks of data, AGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, AGO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.4%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 25.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGO would have grown to $671, compared to $863 for the S&P 500. AGO has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AGO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AGO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.4% after 12 months (median -26.0%), compared to +2.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.5% vs +13.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AGO has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 33.0% | -26.3% | +675.0% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 23.7% | -49.8% | +420.5% |
| May 2008 | Jun 2008 | 2 | 2.8% | -43.0% | +422.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 73 | 83.5% | -43.8% | +467.8% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 1.1% | -24.3% | +474.9% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 23 | 33.4% | -4.4% | +553.2% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 11.0% | -36.3% | +532.2% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 51 | 42.4% | -5.5% | +571.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Jan 2013 | 41 | 22.1% | +40.6% | +664.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 43 | 48.5% | +31.5% | +182.1% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 1.5% | +45.0% | +161.4% |
| Average | 23 | — | +-10.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02