AGNC
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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) closed at $11.44 as of 2026-02-02, trading 50.1% above its 200-week moving average of $7.62. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, AGNC is in overbought territory.
Over the past 877 weeks of data, AGNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AGNC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
With a market cap of $12.7 billion, AGNC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 71.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 16.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGNC would have grown to $669, compared to $1070 for the S&P 500. AGNC has returned 11.9% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -61.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AGNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGNC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AGNC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.6% vs +35.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AGNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 2.4% | +27.9% | +167.6% |
| Nov 2013 | Feb 2014 | 13 | 11.1% | +25.7% | +155.1% |
| Mar 2014 | Mar 2014 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.0% | +144.5% |
| Jun 2015 | Aug 2015 | 7 | 4.9% | +18.7% | +128.0% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 3 | 1.5% | +16.0% | +115.9% |
| Sep 2015 | Feb 2016 | 22 | 10.5% | +16.3% | +116.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.1% | +6.6% | +76.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 37.0% | +52.3% | +104.3% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2024 | 109 | 37.5% | -3.3% | +51.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 4.7% | +3.9% | +60.8% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 0.2% | N/A | +54.7% |
| Average | 18 | — | +18.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02