AGNC
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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) closed at $9.75 as of 2026-03-20, trading 27.3% above its 200-week moving average of $7.66. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 883 weeks of data, AGNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AGNC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
With a market cap of $11.0 billion, AGNC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 92.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 17 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGNC would have grown to $576, compared to $1007 for the S&P 500. AGNC has returned 10.9% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AGNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGNC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AGNC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.6% vs +35.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AGNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 2.4% | +27.9% | +130.5% |
| Nov 2013 | Feb 2014 | 13 | 11.1% | +25.7% | +119.8% |
| Mar 2014 | Mar 2014 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.0% | +110.6% |
| Jun 2015 | Aug 2015 | 7 | 4.9% | +18.7% | +96.4% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 3 | 1.5% | +16.0% | +85.9% |
| Sep 2015 | Feb 2016 | 22 | 10.5% | +16.3% | +86.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.1% | +6.6% | +51.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 37.0% | +52.3% | +76.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2024 | 109 | 37.5% | -3.3% | +30.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 4.7% | +3.9% | +38.5% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 0.2% | N/A | +33.3% |
| Average | 18 | — | +18.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGNC below its 200-week moving average?
No. AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is currently 27.3% above its 200-week moving average of $7.66. It would need to fall to $7.66 to cross below the line.
What is AGNC's 200-week moving average price?
AGNC Investment Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $7.66 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AGNC drops below its 200-week moving average?
AGNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is AGNC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AGNC as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Return on equity is 15.1%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AGNC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17 years, $100 invested in AGNC would have grown to $576, compared to $1007 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. AGNC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AGNC pay a dividend?
Yes. AGNC Investment Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 1478.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20