AGCO
AGCO Corporation Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Investor Relations →
AGCO Corporation (AGCO) closed at $113.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 5.2% above its 200-week moving average of $108.02. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1735 weeks of data, AGCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AGCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.1%.
With a market cap of $8.2 billion, AGCO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 17.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AGCO would have grown to $2916, compared to $3011 for the S&P 500. AGCO has returned 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AGCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AGCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying AGCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.0% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.5% vs +33.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AGCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AGCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AGCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $101.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $113.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $128.75 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $148.61 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $175.72 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AGCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AGCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +24.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1998 | Oct 2001 | 178 | 74.4% | -50.3% | +529.8% |
| Mar 2005 | Jun 2005 | 10 | 10.3% | +15.2% | +709.3% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 0.4% | +22.2% | +674.9% |
| Sep 2005 | Feb 2006 | 22 | 23.5% | +26.0% | +661.9% |
| Mar 2006 | Mar 2006 | 1 | 1.9% | +96.7% | +669.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2010 | 100 | 57.3% | -12.9% | +375.6% |
| Sep 2010 | Oct 2010 | 1 | 3.5% | -8.5% | +285.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 4 | 14.8% | +11.8% | +266.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 14.9% | +24.3% | +287.3% |
| Jul 2014 | Feb 2015 | 28 | 15.4% | +15.1% | +199.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 8 | 4.0% | +8.1% | +193.7% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2015 | 14 | 11.3% | +3.2% | +192.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | 11.3% | +24.4% | +190.2% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 2.1% | +26.6% | +191.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +30.1% | +184.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Oct 2016 | 16 | 6.8% | +39.6% | +192.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 1.4% | +40.5% | +184.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 5 | 8.9% | +34.4% | +149.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 5.0% | +41.9% | +152.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 22 | 36.3% | +116.2% | +126.2% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2025 | 59 | 27.0% | +2.0% | +8.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Jul 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +7.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.2% | N/A | +10.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | 10 | 3.8% | N/A | +11.0% |
| Average | 21 | — | +24.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. AGCO Corporation (AGCO) is currently 5.2% above its 200-week moving average of $108.02. It would need to fall to $108.02 to cross below the line.
What is AGCO's 200-week moving average price?
AGCO Corporation's 200-week moving average is $108.02 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AGCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
AGCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is AGCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AGCO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 8.4%. Return on equity is 17.5%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AGCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in AGCO would have grown to $2916, compared to $3011 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AGCO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AGCO pay a dividend?
Yes. AGCO Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 106.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19