AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Fintech Investor Relations →
Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) closed at $43.81 as of 2026-03-20, trading 12.4% above its 200-week moving average of $38.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 222 weeks of data, AFRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $14.6 billion, AFRM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 8.9%. The stock trades at 4.1x book value.
Share count has increased 13.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFRM would have grown to $44, compared to $145 for the S&P 500. AFRM has returned -17.4% annualized vs 9.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AFRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying AFRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.8% after 12 months (median +49.0%), compared to +14.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.0% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AFRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | Dec 2023 | 102 | 85.1% | -88.6% | -45.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Oct 2024 | 40 | 43.0% | +54.6% | +1.9% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 8.3% | +85.2% | +7.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 15.4% | N/A | +22.5% |
| Average | 36 | — | +17.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFRM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) is currently 12.4% above its 200-week moving average of $38.99. It would need to fall to $38.99 to cross below the line.
What is AFRM's 200-week moving average price?
Affirm Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.99 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AFRM drops below its 200-week moving average?
AFRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is AFRM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AFRM as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 8.9%. Price-to-book is 4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AFRM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.3 years, $100 invested in AFRM would have grown to $44, compared to $145 for the S&P 500. That's -17.4% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. AFRM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20