AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Fintech Investor Relations →
Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) closed at $57.03 as of 2026-02-02, trading 48.6% above its 200-week moving average of $38.38. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 57.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 216 weeks of data, AFRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $19.0 billion, AFRM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 7.6%. The stock trades at 6.0x book value.
Share count has increased 13.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFRM would have grown to $57, compared to $154 for the S&P 500. AFRM has returned -12.5% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: AFRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying AFRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.7% after 12 months (median +49.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.0% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AFRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | Dec 2023 | 102 | 85.1% | -88.6% | -28.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Oct 2024 | 40 | 43.0% | +54.6% | +32.6% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 8.3% | +85.2% | +40.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 15.4% | N/A | +59.5% |
| Average | 36 | — | +17.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02