AFL
Aflac Incorporated Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) closed at $117.15 as of 2026-02-02, trading 40.5% above its 200-week moving average of $83.40. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 33.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, AFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.8%.
With a market cap of $61.4 billion, AFL is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
AFL is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 208.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFL would have grown to $9435, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming AFL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -18.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AFL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying AFL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.1% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.6% vs +32.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AFL has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +32.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 2 | 1.3% | -1.6% | +247271.4% |
| Aug 1981 | Apr 1982 | 35 | 13.4% | +26.6% | +243406.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 2 | 0.5% | +52.7% | +28334.1% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 5 | 6.9% | +72.2% | +23620.9% |
| Aug 1990 | Sep 1990 | 2 | 3.6% | +75.2% | +23588.2% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 6 | 10.9% | +74.1% | +22964.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | +29.7% | +1589.3% |
| Dec 2001 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | +33.2% | +1521.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | +26.5% | +1417.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2009 | 60 | 71.8% | +17.9% | +810.1% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 9.5% | +27.3% | +675.4% |
| May 2011 | Oct 2011 | 21 | 31.1% | -14.3% | +618.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 10 | 12.6% | +13.9% | +637.7% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 3.2% | +20.3% | +661.0% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 6 | 8.7% | +45.6% | +735.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 36.4% | +26.1% | +229.9% |
| Average | 12 | — | +32.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02