AFG
American Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) closed at $142.31 as of 2026-09-18, trading 21.9% above its 200-week moving average of $116.73. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 21.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.0%.
With a market cap of $11.8 billion, AFG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 20.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.1% reduction over three years. AFG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFG would have grown to $2969, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. AFG has returned 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying AFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.0% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.8% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $137.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $141.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $145.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $150.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $154.85 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $2.37 | $2.82 | +18.9% |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.56 | $2.47 | -3.4% |
| 2026-02-03 | $3.32 | $3.65 | +10.1% |
| 2025-11-04 | $2.51 | $2.69 | +7.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +21.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1983 | 51 | 34.8% | +20.0% | +8732.0% |
| Feb 1983 | May 1983 | 11 | 18.5% | +22.1% | +7501.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 61 | 12.5% | +8.6% | +4615.2% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 1.9% | +8.8% | +4245.7% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 6 | 5.5% | +12.9% | +4200.9% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 5 | 4.3% | +11.2% | +4200.9% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 27 | 31.4% | +8.9% | +4086.2% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 1 | 0.0% | -7.6% | +4105.4% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.1% | +32.4% | +3976.5% |
| Mar 1992 | Dec 1992 | 36 | 11.7% | +31.7% | +4078.8% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 5 | 4.1% | +28.5% | +3255.8% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.2% | +33.4% | +3240.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.4% | -11.7% | +2068.5% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 2.1% | -17.3% | +1939.2% |
| May 1999 | Mar 2002 | 145 | 44.3% | -17.3% | +1920.2% |
| Jun 2002 | Jul 2003 | 56 | 23.5% | -5.2% | +2443.2% |
| Jul 2003 | Nov 2003 | 14 | 6.5% | +33.5% | +2525.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 4.8% | -38.5% | +1331.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 50.9% | +65.2% | +2179.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 43.9% | +62.3% | +234.4% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 4 | 2.8% | +95.5% | +183.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Jan 2021 | 1 | 3.1% | +84.8% | +186.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +21.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is currently 21.9% above its 200-week moving average of $116.73. It would need to fall to $116.73 to cross below the line.
What is AFG's 200-week moving average price?
American Financial Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $116.73 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is AFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AFG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 20.4%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AFG would have grown to $2969, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AFG pay a dividend?
Yes. American Financial Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 247.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18