AFG
American Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) closed at $132.90 as of 2026-06-19, trading 15.7% above its 200-week moving average of $114.83. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $11.0 billion, AFG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 19.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.1% reduction over three years. AFG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFG would have grown to $2756, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. AFG has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying AFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.0% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.8% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $121.09 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $124.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $128.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $131.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $135.86 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1983 | 51 | 34.8% | +20.0% | +8096.6% |
| Feb 1983 | May 1983 | 11 | 18.5% | +22.1% | +6954.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 61 | 12.4% | +8.6% | +4276.0% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.8% | +3933.0% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 6 | 5.4% | +12.9% | +3891.5% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 5 | 4.2% | +11.2% | +3891.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 27 | 31.3% | +8.9% | +3785.0% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | -6.9% | +3830.0% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.0% | +32.4% | +3683.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Dec 1992 | 36 | 14.1% | +31.8% | +3811.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 5 | 4.1% | +28.5% | +3014.4% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.1% | +33.4% | +3000.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.4% | -11.7% | +1912.5% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | -17.3% | +1792.4% |
| May 1999 | Mar 2002 | 145 | 44.3% | -17.3% | +1774.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jul 2003 | 57 | 23.5% | -5.2% | +2260.3% |
| Jul 2003 | Nov 2003 | 14 | 6.4% | +33.5% | +2336.9% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 4.7% | -38.5% | +1228.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 50.9% | +66.4% | +2031.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 43.8% | +62.3% | +210.4% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 7 | 5.0% | +95.5% | +163.3% |
| Average | 26 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is currently 15.7% above its 200-week moving average of $114.83. It would need to fall to $114.83 to cross below the line.
What is AFG's 200-week moving average price?
American Financial Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $114.83 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is AFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AFG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 19.4%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AFG would have grown to $2756, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19