AFG
American Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) closed at $124.18 as of 2026-03-20, trading 8.9% above its 200-week moving average of $113.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.39 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2352 weeks of data, AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $10.3 billion, AFG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 18.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.1% reduction over three years. AFG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFG would have grown to $2558, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. AFG has returned 10.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying AFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.0% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.8% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1983 | 51 | 34.8% | +20.0% | +7507.2% |
| Feb 1983 | May 1983 | 11 | 18.5% | +22.1% | +6447.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 61 | 12.4% | +8.6% | +3961.3% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.8% | +3643.0% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 6 | 5.4% | +12.9% | +3604.4% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 5 | 4.2% | +11.2% | +3604.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 27 | 31.3% | +8.9% | +3505.6% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | -6.9% | +3547.3% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.0% | +32.4% | +3411.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Dec 1992 | 36 | 14.1% | +31.8% | +3530.2% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 5 | 4.1% | +28.5% | +2790.4% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.1% | +33.4% | +2777.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.4% | -11.7% | +1767.8% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | -17.3% | +1656.4% |
| May 1999 | Mar 2002 | 145 | 44.3% | -17.3% | +1640.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Jul 2003 | 57 | 23.5% | -5.2% | +2090.5% |
| Jul 2003 | Nov 2003 | 14 | 6.4% | +33.5% | +2161.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 4.7% | -38.5% | +1133.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 50.9% | +66.4% | +1878.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 43.8% | +62.3% | +188.0% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 7 | 5.0% | +95.5% | +144.3% |
| Average | 26 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is currently 8.9% above its 200-week moving average of $113.99. It would need to fall to $113.99 to cross below the line.
What is AFG's 200-week moving average price?
American Financial Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $113.99 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is AFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AFG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 18.1%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in AFG would have grown to $2558, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 10.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. AFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AFG pay a dividend?
Yes. American Financial Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 283.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20