AFG
American Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) closed at $131.04 as of 2026-02-02, trading 14.3% above its 200-week moving average of $114.65. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 13.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, AFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $10.9 billion, AFG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFG would have grown to $2668, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. AFG has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying AFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.0% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.8% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1983 | 51 | 34.8% | +20.0% | +7834.1% |
| Feb 1983 | May 1983 | 11 | 18.5% | +22.1% | +6728.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 61 | 12.4% | +8.6% | +4135.8% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.8% | +3803.8% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 6 | 5.4% | +12.9% | +3763.6% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 5 | 4.2% | +11.2% | +3763.6% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 27 | 31.3% | +8.9% | +3660.6% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | -6.9% | +3704.1% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.0% | +32.4% | +3562.0% |
| Mar 1992 | Dec 1992 | 36 | 14.1% | +31.8% | +3686.2% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 5 | 4.1% | +28.5% | +2914.6% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 2.1% | +33.4% | +2900.7% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.4% | -11.7% | +1848.0% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | -17.3% | +1731.8% |
| May 1999 | Mar 2002 | 145 | 44.3% | -17.3% | +1714.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Jul 2003 | 57 | 23.5% | -5.2% | +2184.7% |
| Jul 2003 | Nov 2003 | 14 | 6.4% | +33.5% | +2258.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 4.7% | -38.5% | +1186.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 50.9% | +66.4% | +1963.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 43.8% | +62.3% | +200.4% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 7 | 5.0% | +95.5% | +154.8% |
| Average | 26 | — | +18.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02